Apex Capital · April 22 2026 — Day 13 · Ceasefire Extended · GLD Trigger Aborted

⚡ Today's Critical Path — Day 13

ABORTED — EXTENSIONGLD sliding-scale add did NOT fire. Trump posted on Truth Social (~4:22 PM ET Apr 21) extending the ceasefire at Pakistan's request "until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal." Condition 2 (expiry without extension) was NOT met. Trigger is RESET — no fixed new deadline, re-arms when bear prob returns above 30% and a new expiry/collapse event occurs.

HELD — V NOT EXITEDV exit rule did NOT fire. Ceasefire formally extended — thesis (deal materialises) remains weakly alive. Vance not travelling to Islamabad today; Iran has not confirmed attendance. April 25 hard deadline still governs: exit V at April 25 open if no official talks confirmation (State Dept, Iranian FM, or Pakistani govt) by close April 24.

TOMORROW — DEPLOYApril 23: UNH Scenario B cooling proceeds (~$970 est.) deploy via 50/30/20 at market open. 50% (~$485) → cash reserve. 30% (~$291) → JPM/GS (lowest-correlation target). 20% (~$194) → re-entry reserve (cannot go to UNH — recently trimmed). Execute at open per R1 rule — no discretion on timing.

APR 25 — DEADLINEV April 25 hard deadline unchanged. No official confirmation of talks → exit V at April 25 open, full position, no stub. Naval blockade continues. Iran has not confirmed attendance. Trajectory: exit fires Friday unless something materially changes by April 24 EOD.

APR 29 — DECISIONAVGO May 1 overweight expiry decision required by April 29. Meta 1GW chip deal (CNBC confirmed) is a new catalyst that may justify holding 16% past May 1. Three options must be evaluated: (A) extend to Jun 4 earnings, (B) trim to 13% on May 1 per R4, (C) raise stop as compromise. Decision logged by April 29 briefing.

Trump reverses course: extends ceasefire at Pakistan's request, no fixed deadline — GLD sliding-scale add trigger condition 2 NOT met, trigger aborted and reset — V exit NOT triggered, April 25 deadline governs — S&P 500 ~–0.48% (~7,075), reversed early ceasefire-extension gains as naval blockade continues — AVGO ~$401 (+0.4%), Meta 1GW chip deal confirmed (CNBC) — NFLX ~$93 (–0.4%), post-earnings consolidation — GLD ~$430 (–2.8%), safe-haven unwind — WTI ~$89.61 (+2.5%), blockade premium persists — BTC ~$75,504 (–1.3%) — UNH Scenario B cooling deploys tomorrow — Bear prob revised 32%→22% · Bull 28%→38%

⚡ Day 13 Executive Summary — Master Portfolio Reference

Portfolio Value — Master (est.)

~$11,680

EST GLD –2.8% (–~$41 est.) principal drag · Tech cluster mild pressure (S&P –0.48%) · AVGO +0.4% partial offset · Net: –~$80 est. from ~$11,760 · +16.8% from $10,000 start

Daily Change

–~$80 est.

EST GLD unwind primary drag · Mild tech/crypto pressure · UNH flat, stabilising post-binary · NFLX near entry

Cumul. Realised Gain

+~$570 est.

EST UNH Scenario B trim (+~$210) · NFLX Apr 17 trim · AVGO prior trims · XOM 50% exit · All realised P&L to date, separate from unrealised

Cash (incl. cooling)

~$3,170 est.

EST ~$970 UNH cooling deploys April 23. GLD add aborted — cash preserved. Post-deploy cash ~$2,680 est. Strongest buffer of the simulation.

Trigger Resolution — Day 13

GLD Add Trigger

ABORTED

Condition 2 not met — ceasefire extended. Trigger reset and disarmed. Re-arms when bear prob >30% AND new expiry/collapse event confirmed.

V Exit (Wed open)

NOT FIRED

Ceasefire extended — expiry condition not met. V held at 1.5%. April 25 hard deadline now the primary exit gate. Exit fires Friday.

R1 Cooling Deploy

APR 23 OPEN

~$970 UNH Scenario B proceeds: 50%→cash, 30%→JPM/GS (~$291), 20%→re-entry reserve. On schedule. Execute at open.

Standing Actions

TOMORROW — OPENDeploy ~$970 UNH Scenario B cooling proceeds at April 23 open via 50/30/20. 50% (~$485) → cash reserve. 30% (~$291) → JPM/GS. 20% (~$194) → re-entry reserve (cannot go to UNH). No discretion on timing.

APR 25 — HARD EXITV exit at April 25 open unless official talks confirmation received by April 24 EOD. Official confirmation = statement from US State Dept, Iranian Foreign Ministry, or Pakistani govt confirming scheduled talks. Verbal leaks, media reports, Trump tweets do not count. No stub. Full exit. Current trajectory: fires.

APR 29 — DECISIONAVGO May 1 expiry: evaluate extension case by April 29. Option A: extend to Jun 4 (Meta deal = new catalyst). Option B: trim 16%→13% on May 1 per R4. Option C: raise stop as compromise while holding weight. Decision must be logged in April 29 briefing before May 1 action date.

HOLDAll other positions unchanged. NFLX, AVGO, BTC, ETH: R3 gate blocks new capital. UNH 75%, stop $285. XOM 50% stub held. GLD held at existing position — add aborted, hedge function intact. Bear prob 22% — GLD trigger disarmed.

Allocation Efficiency — Expected Return Per 1% Weight · Day 13

Return/weight figures are model estimates with wide uncertainty intervals. Reallocation is only required when misallocation cost exceeds 2% of portfolio expected return. Below 2%: deviations accepted with stated rationale. EST

Rank	Position	Weight	Est. Return / 1% wt. (base)	Cost of Current vs Optimal · Note
1st	AVGO	~16%	~3.1% / 1%	Overweight by 3%. Meta 1GW deal strengthens extension case — may justify holding 16% past May 1. Formal evaluation required by Apr 29.
2nd	UNH (75%)	~9.75%	~2.1% / 1%	MCR beat upgrades return/weight. Thesis STRENGTHENED. Stop $285 locks in floor gain.
3rd	NFLX	~12%	~1.1% / 1%	~$93, below entry — Q2 trough thesis intact. Cost vs AVGO: ~0.24% portfolio return. Accepted — next gate Jul 16.
4th	ETH	~7%	~0.9% / 1%	Tactical. Stop $2,050 governs. R3 gate blocks new capital. ~$2,300 est.
5th	JPM/GS	~5% → ~7%	~0.8% / 1%	Scale-up tomorrow (+$291). Lowest cluster correlation — preferred diversification target.
6th	BTC	~5%	~0.7% / 1%	Tactical. Trailing stop $70K governs. ~$75,504 today, above stop.
—	GLD	~3.5%	~0.4% / 1% ↓	–2.8% today on safe-haven unwind. Add aborted. Hedge re-arms at bear prob >30%.
—	V	~1.5%	~0.2% / 1% ↓↓	Exiting Friday. No scale-up. No stub. April 25 hard deadline.

⚖️ Ceasefire Trump Extends Ceasefire at Pakistan's Request — No Fixed Deadline — Naval Blockade Continues FACT At ~4:22 PM ET Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social extending the ceasefire at Pakistan's request with no fixed deadline. The extension is conditioned on Iran submitting a unified proposal. US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues despite the extension. Iran's FM Araghchi called the blockade "an act of war and ceasefire violation." Iran has not confirmed whether it will send a delegation to Islamabad. Vance is not travelling today. Pakistan's PM Sharif thanked Trump. A US administration official noted Vance would not be travelling Tuesday and any updates on in-person meetings would be announced by the White House. The market initially surged on the extension news (S&P futures +0.68%) but reversed as investors digested the blockade-persists reality.

📡 AVGO Meta Commits 1GW Custom Chips to Broadcom — Hock Tan Leaves Board — Largest AI Chip Contract to Date FACT CNBC reported Meta has committed to one gigawatt of custom AI chips with Broadcom, with Hock Tan agreeing to leave the board as part of the partnership. This is the largest single AI chip contract announced to date. Combined with Anthropic, Alphabet, and Apple deals, AVGO's AI chip business now has multi-year contracted demand across four of the world's largest AI investors. EST The "contracted growth" narrative is now dominant — AVGO is no longer a boom-and-bust semiconductor play but a multi-year infrastructure partner. This is directly relevant to the May 1 R4 overweight expiry decision. The deal must be formally evaluated as an extension catalyst by April 29.

📈 Markets S&P Reverses Extension Gains, Ends –0.48% — VIX Elevated — WTI Holds Above $89 Despite Truce FACT S&P 500 ~–0.48% (~7,075). Dow –0.46%. Nasdaq –0.40%. VIX +5% to ~19.8. WTI crude +2.5% to ~$89.61. Gold futures –2.2% to ~$4,724. BTC –1.3% to ~$75,504. The market's reversal from morning highs is telling: the extension reduced tail risk but did not remove the blockade or oil price premium. VIX remaining near 20 indicates sustained uncertainty. GLD –2.8% is the clearest expression of reduced safe-haven demand, but the partial nature of that unwind (WTI still $89+) reflects the market's scepticism about full resolution.

🏦 Macro / FOMC FOMC Apr 28–29: Hold Expected, But Hormuz Blockade Sustains Oil/Inflation Narrative EST The ceasefire extension does not resolve the blockade-driven oil premium. WTI at $89–90 is still meaningfully above the pre-war $75–80 baseline. Core PCE running near 3% YoY with diesel elevated. The Fed's April 28–29 meeting is universally expected to hold, but the rate-cut path has pushed further out as oil feeds into inflation expectations. For the portfolio: JPM/GS normalisation thesis requires a steeper yield curve and/or improved deal environment — both remain on hold until geopolitics resolves. The $291 tomorrow's add is still justified as the lowest-correlation diversification target, but the catalytic unlock for financials is a Hormuz resolution, not an extension alone.

Forward Calendar

APR 23

Deploy ~$970 cooling proceeds (50/30/20) at open — JPM/GS receives ~$291 tranche ACT

APR 24

XOM Q1 earnings — 50% stub remaining, low impact expected LOW

APR 25

V exit at open — fires unless official talks confirmation by Apr 24 EOD HARD DEADLINE

APR 28–29

FOMC — hold expected · Hormuz blockade sustains inflation concerns HIGH

APR 29

AVGO May 1 expiry decision required — evaluate Meta deal as extension catalyst DECISION

MAY 1

AVGO overweight expiry — trim 16%→13% unless extension approved MED

JUN 4

AVGO Q2 earnings — primary re-rating catalyst HIGH

JUL 16

NFLX Q2 earnings — Q2 trough thesis confirmation gate HIGH

Macro Scenario Probabilities — Post-Extension Revision · Day 13

🐂 Bull 38% ↑ (extension keeps window open)⚖️ Base 40% → (stalemate drags)🐻 Bear 22% ↓ (GLD trigger disarmed)

Revision from Day 12: Bull 28%→38% (+10%) · Base 40%→40% (unchanged) · Bear 32%→22% (–10%). Extension reduces near-term re-escalation risk. However, blockade continuing prevents full de-escalation re-rating. GLD sliding-scale add disarmed until bear prob returns above 30%.

Bull

38% (±10%) ↑ from 28%

Deal Materialises

Iran submits a unified proposal. Vance travels to Islamabad. Framework agreement reached on uranium enrichment. Hormuz fully reopens. Blockade lifted. WTI falls to $80–85. S&P rallies 3–5%. UNH re-rates to $370+. V exit would not fire — but the April 25 deadline makes the scale-up irrelevant (window too short).

What confirms: Iran FM announcement of talks attendance. Vance departure announced. WTI below $87 on Hormuz optimism. XOM R2 exit trigger approaches.

Confidence: LOW-MED. Extension is positive signal but fundamental gap (US 20yr vs Iran 5yr enrichment pause) has not narrowed. Iran's FM rhetoric is still hostile.

Base

40% (±10%) → unchanged

Open-Ended Stalemate

No Iran proposal. No Vance travel. Extension drags indefinitely with no new deadline. Blockade continues at reduced enforcement. WTI stays $86–93. S&P grinds sideways. FOMC holds. Earnings drive individual returns — AVGO/UNH thesis compounds. V exits April 25. AVGO May 1 expiry decision becomes the next structural catalyst.

What confirms: No Iran response within 72 hours. WTI range-bound. VIX 18–22.

Confidence: MED-HIGH. Open-ended extensions without fixed deadlines typically become indefinite stalemates. This is the modal regime.

Bear

22% (±10%) ↓ from 32%

Extension Collapses

Iran formally declares the extension void (blockade = ceasefire violation). IRGC fires on US vessel. Extension collapses within 48–72 hours. WTI spikes above $100. S&P drops 5–8%. GLD add trigger re-arms immediately as bear prob exceeds 30%. BTC/ETH may hit stops.

What confirms: Iran official statement declaring ceasefire void. Military action in Hormuz. WTI above $97 in one session.

Confidence: MED. Risk reduced but not eliminated — Iran's FM rhetoric remains hostile and blockade enforcement is an open provocation. Extension has no enforcement mechanism.

Trigger Dashboard — Full Status · Day 13

Fired This Cycle

UNH Scenario B — 25% trim at VWAP (Apr 21)Adj. EPS $7.23 vs $6.48 · Beat + Expiry branch✅ FIRED APR 21

UNH Stop Raise $245→$285 (Apr 21)Scenario B execution rule✅ ACTIVE

R2 XOM 50% exit — verbal confirmation (Apr 17)Trump verbal on CNBC · first tranche only✅ FIRED APR 17

Aborted / Not Fired

GLD Sliding-Scale Add — Condition 2 (expiry without extension)Bear prob 32% — cond. 1 MET · cond. 2 NOT MET — extension granted⊘ ABORTED · RESET

V Exit at Wednesday OpenCeasefire extended — expiry did not occur⊘ NOT FIRED

Live / Pending

V Exit — April 25 hard deadlineNo official talks confirmation by Apr 24 EOD → exit at Apr 25 open🔴 FIRES FRI — 3 DAYS

50/30/20 UNH Cooling Deploy — April 23 openR1: 24h cooling complete · 50/30/20 rule🟢 FIRES TOMORROW

AVGO May 1 Overweight Expiry (R4)Decision by Apr 29 — Meta 1GW deal = potential extension catalyst⚠ PENDING — APR 29

GLD Sliding-Scale Add (re-armed state)Bear prob must return above 30% + new expiry/collapse event⊘ DISARMED

XOM R2 Second Tranche ExitOfficial US/Iran govt confirmation of scheduled talks (not verbal)WATCH — RECEDING

Blocked

New capital to NFLX, AVGO, BTC, ETHR3 gate — 2+ pairs above 0.70 (NFLX/AVGO 0.72, BTC/ETH 0.78)🚫 BLOCKED

V scale-up 1.5%→3%Window closes Apr 25 · talks not confirmed · blockade ongoing🚫 EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED

Retrospective — Process Quality Audit · Day 13 · R5 Framework

R5 rule: STRONG = falsifiable and correct. WEAK = vague or partially wrong. VAGUE = no real predictive content. Hits summarised (40–50 words). Misses/partials expanded.

HIT STRONG Two-condition GLD structure worked exactly as designed. Condition 1 (bear prob >30%) was met; condition 2 (expiry without extension) was not. The trigger correctly did not fire. Prevented a ~$141 est. position add at a price that then fell 2.8%. Rule architecture — not discretion — delivered the right outcome.

HIT STRONG V exit rule held correctly. Pre-committed binary (expiry = exit, extension = hold) resisted intraday ambiguity (Trump saying he wouldn't extend, then reversing within hours). The rule prevented a premature exit; the April 25 deadline remains the correct gate. Pre-commitment outperformed discretion.

MISS WEAK Day 12 identified ceasefire expiry as a near-certainty based on Trump's CNBC statement. Trump reversed his position within hours on Truth Social. The miss reflects a structural error: the Day 12 briefing tagged Trump's negotiating-position statement as FACT when it should have been tagged as SOFT-FACT (likely directional, not binding). Presidential statements in active negotiations have a well-documented history of reversal — this is a known variable that was not modelled. Lesson embedded: going forward, unilateral presidential statements on live negotiations are tagged SOFT-FACT, not FACT. Hard facts in this domain require: (a) official government-to-government announcements, (b) State Dept/FM confirmation, or (c) action already executed (e.g., Vance has landed). Verbal statements from any party during live negotiations are SOFT-FACT by default. This should be added to the sourcing discipline note in the framework permanently.

PARTIAL WEAK Bear probability was assessed at 32% and the GLD trigger was staged as "fires Wednesday." The bear probability revision caused by extension (32%→22%) was not pre-modelled as a sub-branch. The trigger tree should explicitly include: "extension granted → bear prob revises down → trigger disarms." This downward revision logic was implicit but not documented. Adding it now.

HIT STRONG AVGO meta-thesis (AI capex deals = contracted multi-year growth) correctly anticipated the Meta deal as the type of catalyst that would arrive. The May 1 expiry framework was correctly structured to evaluate new catalysts before trimming. The extension evaluation is now the right structural response.

AVGOBroadcom · Meta 1GW deal confirmed · May 1 expiry under reviewCORESTRENGTHENED — EXPIRY REVIEW OPEN

Entry $298 · Current ~$401 · +34.6% · 16% weight · Stop $270 · May 1 expiry (under review — decision Apr 29)

May 1 Expiry — New Catalyst Evaluation Framework

FACT Meta has committed to 1GW of custom chips with Broadcom (CNBC). Combined with Anthropic, Alphabet, and Apple deals, AVGO now has multi-year contracted demand from four of the world's largest AI investors. The "$73B backlog" figure has grown materially. Jun 4 Q2 earnings are 43 days away. EST The R4 overweight expiry rule requires a new catalyst to justify extending the 16% position past May 1. The Meta deal is the strongest catalyst delivered yet — more concrete than "guidance" or "backlog growth" alone.

April 29 Decision — Three Options:

Option A — Extend to Jun 4: Meta deal = new catalyst. Hold 16% until Jun 4 Q2 earnings. If Q2 beat with raised AI capex guidance → further extension or review. If miss → trim to 13% at VWAP immediately. Rationale: contracted multi-year growth is qualitatively different from the original thesis. Risk: May 1–Jun 4 gap with 16% concentration and no earnings confirmation.

Option B — Trim to 13% on May 1: Lock in partial gain on the overweight. R4 rule governs. Jun 4 earnings become the next entry point for 16% re-entry. Rationale: rules are rules — the catalyst for extension should be earnings, not deal announcements that are already priced in.

Option C — Raise Stop as Compromise: Keep 16% but raise stop from $270 to $340 (trailing ~15% from current). Preserves upside exposure while limiting downside if AVGO de-rates before Jun 4. Rationale: manages concentration risk without forcing a trim that may be regretted.

⚠ What Invalidates from Here

Google/Marvell partnership at material scale displaces AVGO contracted share. AVGO misses Jun 4 Q2 EPS. AI capex cycle shows first signs of slowdown or deferral. Price breaks $270 → stop-loss exit.

UNHUnitedHealth · 75% held · stop $285 · thesis strengthenedCORESTRENGTHENED · 75% HELD · STOP $285

Entry $279 · Current ~$348 · +24.7% · 9.75% weight · Stop $285 · Next: Q2 Jul 16

Scenario B executed April 21: 25% trimmed at VWAP ~$340–345 (+~$210 est. realised). Remaining 75% held. Stop raised to $285 — locks in minimum +2.2% portfolio gain even if UNH returns to stop. MCR 83.9% (190bps better than feared 85.7%) confirms margin recovery thesis is genuine. Cooling proceeds (~$970) deploy tomorrow. UNH flat/stable today. No action until Q2 earnings July 16.

⚠ What Invalidates from Here

Q2 MCR back above 86%. DOJ formal charges filed. Guidance cut. Price breaks $285 → automatic exit of remaining 75% at VWAP 10:00–10:30 AM ET.

NFLXNetflix · ~$93 · post-earnings consolidation · Q2 trough thesis intactCOREUNCHANGED · THESIS INTACT

Entry $97.50 · Current ~$93 · –4.6% · 12% weight · Stop $85 · Next: Q2 Jul 16

FACT Q1 EPS $1.23 vs $0.79 est. (55.7% beat). Revenue $12.25B (+1.7% beat). 325M subscribers. Advertising projected ~$3B 2026 (doubling YoY). Q2 guide softer — content cost headwind. Stock fell ~10% on guide miss; now consolidating ~$93. EST Position is –4.6% from $97.50 entry but well above $85 stop. Q2 content-cost trough thesis: peak spend in Q2, FCF $12.5B raised for full year signals back-half confidence. Wolfe Research reiterated Outperform. No action — next gate is Q2 earnings July 16. Stop governs exit.

⚠ What Invalidates from Here

Second consecutive guide miss in July earnings → sizing review. Price breaks $85 → stop-loss exit. Subscriber growth inflects negative. FCF guidance cut.

XOM · V · GLD · BTC/ETH · JPM/GS — Day 13 Status

XOM (~3% stub): EST Ceasefire extension slightly reduces near-term XOM hedge value — if blockade eases, WTI may drift toward $85. However, blockade persists despite extension, so the $89–90 WTI level represents a continued Hormuz premium. XOM Q1 earnings April 24 — monitor but unlikely to move the stub position decision. Official talks confirmation remains the R2 second-tranche exit trigger (still unmet). Stub held.

V (~1.5% — EXITING FRIDAY): EST Extension does not save V. The thesis is "deal materialises" — not "ceasefire extended." Vance not travelling. Iran not confirming. The April 25 deadline requires official confirmation of scheduled talks (not a blockade-still-active open-ended extension). Unless Iran formally announces talks attendance before April 24 EOD, V exits at April 25 open. Full position. No stub. No discretion. The rule is clear.

GLD (~3.5% — add aborted): FACT GLD ~$430, –2.8% today from $442 prior close. EST Safe-haven unwind on extension. Existing position entered ~April 13 at ~$437 reference — unrealised loss has grown. Add trigger correctly aborted. The hedge function is intact and ready to re-arm: if extension collapses and bear prob returns above 30%, the sliding-scale add fires immediately at the next open. Stop at –8% from entry is not near being triggered. No action today.

BTC (~5%) / ETH (~7%): FACT BTC ~$75,504 (–1.3%), above $70K trailing stop. ETH ~$2,300 est. (–modest), above $2,050 stop. Both holding. R3 gate blocks new capital. Fifth consecutive Iran scare absorbed without hitting stops — a continued signal of crypto resilience in geopolitical regimes.

JPM/GS (~5% → ~7% tomorrow): EST Receives ~$291 (30% of cooling proceeds) at April 23 open — first meaningful addition since the starter position. Financial normalisation thesis: JPM/GS benefit from Hormuz resolution (rate normalisation, deal flow improvement). Lowest cluster correlation in portfolio. Tomorrow's deploy is the right structural allocation given the allocation efficiency ranking (#5) and non-correlated buffer goal.

Correlation Matrix — Full Pairwise · Day 13 (R3 — Required Every Briefing)

⚠ R3 gate FULLY TRIGGERED — 2 pairs above 0.70. Full pairwise matrix required every briefing. Selective checking (only 1 pair) is a gate bypass — this flaw was identified and corrected in Day 10.

Tech/Crypto Cluster Pairwise (30-day war-regime est.)

NFLX / AVGO0.72 ⚠ ABOVE GATE

BTC / ETH0.78 ⚠ ABOVE GATE

AVGO / BTC0.63

NFLX / BTC0.60

AVGO / ETH0.58

NFLX / ETH0.55

Cross-Cluster (Tech vs. Other Holdings)

V (monitoring only)~0.45–0.65 (regime-dep.)

AVGO / UNH~0.28

NFLX / UNH~0.22

AVGO / JPM~0.35

Tech cluster / GLD~–0.15 (negative hedge)

Tech cluster / XOM~–0.10 (negative hedge)

EST All correlations are 30-day war-regime estimates. Gate status: FULLY TRIGGERED (2 pairs above 0.70). No new capital to NFLX, AVGO, BTC, or ETH. Tech/crypto cluster is ~40% of portfolio weight — R3 is the primary concentration control. Gate unblocks when at least one pair drops below 0.70.

Portfolio Value (est.)

~$11,680

13-Day Return

+16.8%

Daily Change

–~$80 est.

Cumul. Realised Gain

+~$570 est.

Cash (incl. cooling)

~$3,170 est.

EST Cash ~$3,170: existing ~$2,200 + ~$970 UNH Scenario B cooling proceeds (deploys April 23 open via 50/30/20). GLD add aborted — cash preserved. Bear prob 22% — GLD trigger disarmed. Portfolio daily change driven primarily by GLD –2.8% drag (~–$41 est.) and mild tech cluster pressure (~–$45 est.), partially offset by AVGO +0.4% (~+$8 est.).

All Positions — Day 13 Master Table

Ticker	Intent	Status	Weight	Est. P&L	Stop	Next Gate
NFLX	CORE	UNCHANGED · ~$93 · –4.6% from entry · thesis intact	~12%	–~$54 est.	$85	Q2 Jul 16
AVGO	CORE	STRENGTHENED · ~$401 · +34.6% · Meta 1GW · expiry review open	~16%	+~$497 est.	$270	Apr 29 decision · May 1 · Jun 4 Q2
UNH (75%)	CORE	✅ STRENGTHENED · ~$348 · stop $285 · stable post-binary	~9.75%	+~$315 est.	$285 ↑	Q2 Jul 16
XOM	HEDGE	50% stub · extension mildly reduces hedge value · Apr 24 earnings	~3%	+~$41 est.	$128	Official talks (receding) · Apr 24 Q1
JPM/GS	STARTER→CORE	Scale-up TOMORROW · +~$291 via 50/30/20 deploy	~5% → ~7%	+~$21 est.	Entry –7%	Apr 23 scale-up · FOMC Apr 28
GLD	HEDGE	Add trigger ABORTED · –2.8% today · existing pos. maintained	~3.5%	–~$90 est. ↓	–8% entry	Re-arms: bear prob >30% + collapse event
BTC (50%)	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED · ~$75,504 · above $70K trailing stop	~5%	+~$28 est.	$70K trailing	Active — stop governs
ETH	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED · ~$2,300 est. · above $2,050 stop	~7%	+~$14 est.	$2,050	Active — stop governs
V	STARTER — EXITING FRI	EXIT FIRES APR 25 — no official talks confirmation · full exit, no stub	~1.5%	~$0	Entry –5%	APR 25 hard deadline
Cash (strong)		~$970 cooling deploys APR 23 · GLD add aborted (cash preserved)	~27%	~$3,170 est. · post-deploy cash ~$2,680 est. · 50%→cash, 30%→JPM/GS, 20%→re-entry reserve

Trade Log — Day 13 Complete Running Log

Date	Ticker	Action	Trigger / Rule	Price (est.)	Status
Apr 6–14	Various	Multiple entries, trims, scales	See prior logs	Various	✓ Historical
Apr 17	NFLX / XOM	NFLX trim 16%→12% · XOM 50% exit (R2 first tranche)	R4 expiry · Trump verbal	~$97 / ~$140	✓
Apr 18	V	BUY STARTER 1.5%	WTI 2 sessions below $88 · deal thesis	Apr 18 open	Open · scale blocked · EXIT APR 25
Apr 21	UNH	SCENARIO B: REDUCE 25%	Adj. EPS $7.23 beat · Expiry branch · locked Apr 17	VWAP ~$340–345 est.	✅ Executed · +~$210 est. realised
Apr 21	UNH	STOP RAISED $245→$285	Scenario B rule — 75% remaining	—	✅ Active
Apr 22	GLD	SLIDING-SCALE ADD — ABORTED	Condition 2 NOT met — Trump extended ceasefire ~4:22 PM ET Apr 21	N/A	⊘ Aborted · trigger reset · disarmed
Apr 22	V	EXIT TRIGGER — NOT FIRED	Ceasefire extended — expiry condition not met. Apr 25 governs.	N/A	⊘ Not fired · Apr 25 deadline active
APR 23	CASH / JPM/GS	DEPLOY 50/30/20 — ~$970 cooling proceeds	R1 cooling complete (24h post Apr 21 Scen. B) · 50/30/20 rule	Market open Apr 23	🟢 FIRES TOMORROW
APR 25	V	EXIT — full position, no stub	No official talks confirmation by Apr 24 EOD → exit at Apr 25 open. Thesis invalidation = full exit.	Apr 25 open	🔴 PENDING — trajectory: fires
APR 29	AVGO	DECISION: May 1 expiry — extend or trim	R4 rule · Meta 1GW deal = potential extension catalyst. Three options evaluated.	—	⚠ Decision required

Key structural changes this briefing (Day 13): (1) GLD sliding-scale add trigger ABORTED — Trump extended ceasefire at Pakistan's request (~4:22 PM ET Apr 21) with no fixed deadline. Condition 2 not met. Trigger reset and disarmed. (2) V exit NOT fired — extension means expiry condition not met. April 25 hard deadline now the primary gate. Exit trajectory unchanged. (3) Bear probability revised 32%→22% (–10%), Bull 28%→38% (+10%) on ceasefire extension. GLD trigger disarmed until bear prob returns above 30%. (4) AVGO Meta 1GW chip deal confirmed (CNBC) — largest AI chip contract to date. May 1 overweight expiry enters formal review: three options (A: extend to Jun 4, B: trim to 13%, C: raise stop) must be evaluated by April 29. (5) New sourcing discipline embedded: presidential statements on active negotiations now tagged SOFT-FACT, not FACT. Hard facts require official government-to-government announcements or confirmed actions. Reversal within hours of Trump's CNBC statement flagged this as a structural process error. (6) GLD –2.8% safe-haven unwind — larger unrealised loss on existing position. Hedge function intact. (7) 50/30/20 deploy of ~$970 fires at April 23 open: ~$291 to JPM/GS, ~$485 to cash, ~$194 to re-entry reserve.

April 22, 2026 — Ceasefire Extended · GLD Trigger Aborted · Cooling Deploys Tomorrow