Apex Capital · April 21 2026 — Day 12 · UNH Binary Executed

⚡ Today's Critical Path — Executed / In-Progress

CONFIRMEDUNH Q1 BEAT: Adj. EPS $7.23 vs $6.48 est. (9.4% beat). Revenue $111.7B vs $109.8B est. MCR 83.9% (well below 89.1% override threshold). FY2026 guidance raised to >$18.25. No override conditions met.

EXECUTEDSCENARIO B triggered (Beat + Expiry branch): UNH reduced 25% at VWAP 10:00–10:30 AM ET. Proceeds ~$970 est. into cooling cash per R1. Remaining 75% held with stop raised from $245 to $285.

LIVECeasefire: expires Wednesday evening ET. Trump told CNBC he is not extending the truce. Vance Pakistan trip on hold — Iran failed to respond to US negotiating positions. No formal extension by either party → EXPIRY branch confirmed for decision tree.

WATCH TONIGHTGLD add trigger: Bear prob now ~32% (above 30% threshold). Second condition fires when ceasefire formally expires Wednesday. If no extension confirmed by Wednesday market open → add $300 GLD at open.

WATCHV scale-up: official talks confirmation required by April 25 (5 days from entry). Vance trip delayed, Iran not responding. Scale-up window closing. Re-evaluate V by April 25 if no confirmation.

UNH Q1 decisive beat: adj. EPS $7.23 vs $6.48 est. (9.4% beat) · revenue $111.7B (+1.7% beat) · MCR 83.9% (best in 2 years — 90 bps below Q1 2025) · FY2026 guidance raised to >$18.25 · UNH +7% to ~$348 · Decision tree: SCENARIO B (Beat + Expiry) executed — 25% reduced at VWAP, stop raised to $285 on remaining 75% · Ceasefire expires Wednesday evening · Trump not extending · Vance Pakistan trip on hold · S&P 500 –0.51% · WTI ~$88–92 (+2–3%) · GLD add trigger approaching Wednesday open

⚡ Day 12 Executive Summary — Master Portfolio Reference

Portfolio Value — Master (est.)

~$11,760

EST UNH +7% on remaining 75% (+$210 est.) · S&P –0.51% drags tech cluster (–$160 est.) · Net gain ~+$50 from yesterday's ~$11,640 · +17.6% from $10,000 start

UNH Q1 Actuals

$7.23 adj.

FACT Revenue $111.7B · MCR 83.9% · Guidance >$18.25 · UNH ~$348 (+7%) · Scenario B executed

Ceasefire

EXPIRY WED

FACT Trump not extending · Vance trip on hold · Iran not responding · WTI ~$88–92 (+3%) · Bear prob ~32%

Cash Buffer (post-B)

~$2,870 est.

EST Existing ~$1,900 + ~$970 Scenario B proceeds (cooling 24h per R1) · Strongest non-correlated buffer in simulation

Scenario B Execution Detail

Shares Reduced

25%

of ~13% position = ~3.25% portfolio sold

Execution Price

VWAP

10:00–10:30 AM ET · est. ~$340–345 · +21–24% from $279 entry

P&L on Trim

+$210 est.

Realised gain on 25% tranche from $279 entry

New Stop

$285

Raised from $245 on 75% remaining · Locks in most of the gain

Standing Actions

EXECUTEDUNH Scenario B: 25% reduced at VWAP 10:00–10:30 AM ET. Stop raised $245→$285 on remaining 75%. Proceeds (~$970) in 24h cooling cash per R1. Thesis status: STRENGTHENED on MCR inflection and guidance raise.

TOMORROW OPENGLD add $300 if ceasefire formally expires Wednesday without extension. Bear prob ~32% (condition 1 met). Condition 2 fires when ceasefire expires with no confirmed extension from both parties. Check at Wednesday pre-market.

APR 23Deploy ~$970 Scenario B cooling proceeds via 50/30/20 on April 23 (24h post-execution). 50% → cash reserve. 30% → JPM/GS (lowest correlation to cluster, normalisation thesis intact). 20% → re-entry reserve (cannot go to recently trimmed positions — UNH was just trimmed).

APR 25V scale-up deadline: If no official US–Iran talks confirmation by April 25 → re-evaluate V thesis from scratch. Current trajectory: Vance trip delayed, Iran not responding. Scale-up is moving away from activation.

HOLDAVGO, NFLX, BTC/ETH unchanged. R3 correlation gate still active (NFLX/AVGO 0.72, BTC/ETH 0.78 — both above 0.70). No new capital to tech/crypto cluster. AVGO overweight expiry May 1 unchanged.

Allocation Efficiency — Expected Return Per 1% Weight · Post-Scenario B Update

Position	Weight (post-B)	Est. Return / 1% wt. (base)	Rank	Cost of Current vs Optimal
AVGO	~16%	~3.1% / 1%	1st	Overweight by 3% — justified by AI capex deals through May 1 expiry
UNH (75%)	~9.75%	~2.1% / 1% ↑	2nd ↑	MCR beat upgrades the base-case return/weight ratio. Thesis STRENGTHENED.
NFLX	~12%	~1.1% / 1%	3rd	At target. Cost vs AVGO: ~0.24% portfolio return. Accepted — Q2 trough optionality.
ETH	~7%	~0.9% / 1%	4th	Tactical — stop governs. Gate blocks new capital.
JPM/GS	~5%	~0.8% / 1%	5th	Scale-up target for 30% of cooling proceeds (April 23).
BTC	~5%	~0.7% / 1%	6th	Trailing stop governs. Gate blocks new capital.
V	~1.5%	~0.6% / 1% ↓	—	Downgraded: deal thesis weakening as Vance trip stalls. Re-evaluate by April 25.

EST Explicit cost of NFLX vs AVGO weighting: Holding NFLX at 12% (3rd) vs reallocating to AVGO (1st) costs ~0.24% portfolio expected return. Accepted with a stated reason: NFLX's Q2 content-cost normalisation is a real optionality that pure return-ranking doesn't capture. Review if NFLX misses Q2 guidance (Jul 16).

Key Developments — April 21, 2026

🏥 UNH UNH Q1: Adj. EPS $7.23, MCR 83.9%, Guidance Raised — Margin Recovery Thesis Validated FACT Revenue $111.7B vs $109.8B est. (1.7% beat). Adjusted EPS $7.23 vs $6.61 est. (9.4% beat). MCR 83.9% vs 85.7% feared — 190bps better than consensus, 90bps better than Q1 2025. Operating earnings $9.0B. FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to >$18.25 from >$17.75. UNH +7% to ~$348. The MCR beat is the story — it validates that pricing discipline and medical cost management are working after two years of deterioration. Optum Health loss contract reserves provided 20bps of tailwind but the organic improvement is real.

⚠️ Ceasefire Vance Pakistan Trip On Hold — Trump Not Extending — Ceasefire Expires Tomorrow Evening FACT JD Vance's planned trip to Islamabad for second-round talks was put on hold because Iran failed to respond to US negotiating positions. Trump told CNBC he is not interested in extending the truce. Iran's foreign minister Araghchi called the US naval blockade "an act of war." Brent rose 3% to ~$98, WTI +3% to ~$92. Ceasefire formally expires Wednesday evening ET. Talks have not been cancelled and could restart at a moment's notice per a US official, but the gap between the two sides — US wanting 20-year uranium enrichment pause, Iran offering 5 years — remains wide.

📈 Markets S&P –0.51% on Geopolitical Drag Despite UNH Beat — NFLX Surging +9.7% EST / FACT S&P 500 –0.51% for the day despite UNH and several other earnings beats. Ceasefire uncertainty and oil price pressure are the macro drag. Notably, NFLX is +9.7% today — unusual for a stock that fell 10% post-earnings April 17. This suggests the market is beginning to price in the Q2 content cost trough thesis. AVGO +2.03% to $406. BTC holding ~$76.5K despite equity weakness — fourth consecutive Iran scare absorbed without major crypto damage. GLD slightly lower (–0.51% to ~$4,804) as some safe-haven unwind on UNH euphoria.

🔔 GLD Trigger GLD Add Trigger: Condition 1 Met (Bear Prob 32%) — Condition 2 Fires Wednesday EST Bear probability has risen from 18% (April 17 post-oil-crash optimism) to ~32% today on ceasefire collapse risk. The GLD add trigger requires: (1) Bear prob >30% AND (2) ceasefire expires without formal extension. Condition 1 is met. Condition 2 fires at Wednesday market open if no extension is confirmed by both parties tonight. Instruction: check before Wednesday open — if no extension, add $300 GLD at Wednesday open. This would be the first time this trigger fires in the simulation.

Forward Calendar

APR 22

Ceasefire expiry (Wednesday evening ET) · GLD add fires if no extension · War re-escalation risk peaks CRITICAL

APR 23

Deploy UNH Scenario B cooling proceeds (~$970) via 50/30/20 — JPM/GS receives 30% tranche ACT

APR 24

XOM Q1 earnings (50% stub remaining — may be moot) LOW

APR 25

V scale-up window closes — re-evaluate V thesis if no official confirmation MED

APR 28–29

FOMC — ceasefire outcome shapes rate path expectations HIGH

MAY 1

AVGO overweight expiry — trim 16%→13% absent new catalyst MED

JUN 4

AVGO Q2 earnings — primary AVGO re-rating catalyst HIGH

Macro Scenario Probabilities — Post-UNH Binary

🐂 Bull 28% ↓ (deal still possible)⚖️ Base 40% ↑ (stalemate most likely)🐻 Bear 32% ↑ (GLD trigger met)

Bull

28% (±10%)

Last-Minute Deal

Talks restart in Islamabad Wednesday before expiry. Extension agreed. Oil drops back toward $80. Markets rally on deal confirmation. UNH re-rates toward $370+ on MCR improvement story. V scale-up activates. GLD add trigger does not fire.

What confirms: Vance departs for Pakistan in next 12 hours. Iran confirms attendance. WTI reverses back below $88.

Confidence: LOW-MED. Gap between parties remains wide — 20yr vs 5yr uranium enrichment, US blockade demands. These don't close in 12 hours easily.

Base

40% (±10%)

Stalemate — Ceasefire Collapses, No Shooting

Ceasefire expires Wednesday without a deal but without immediate new military action. Both sides posture. Oil stays elevated at $90–100. S&P range-bound. FOMC stays on hold. UNH thesis plays out over weeks. Talks could resume with a different mediator or timeline within 1–2 weeks.

Confidence: MED. Most geopolitical standoffs have a "collapse but don't shoot" phase before either resolution or escalation.

Bear

32% (±10%) — GLD trigger threshold met

Re-Escalation

Ceasefire expires, Iran fires on US vessels or vice versa. WTI spikes above $108. S&P drops 5–8% in a session. Tech cluster –12–15%. GLD add fires at Wednesday open. The April 17 rally was a false dawn — same as NFLX post-earnings.

What confirms: Iran announces military response. WTI crosses $100 in one session. Hormuz traffic drops to near zero.

Confidence: MED. Iran's rhetoric is the most hostile it's been since the ceasefire began.

UNHUnitedHealth — Q1 2026 Deep Dive · Post-Scenario BCORESTRENGTHENED · 75% HELD · STOP $285

Entry $279 · Scenario B VWAP est. ~$340–345 · Current ~$348 · +24.7% from entryWeight: ~9.75% (75% of 13%) · Stop: $285 (raised from $245) · Next gate: Q2 Jul 16

The MCR Number Is The Story

FACT MCR 83.9% versus the feared 85.7% consensus — a 190bps beat on the most important metric in the report. The MCR had risen to 89.1% in FY2025, triggering the $2.88B charge and the stock's collapse. Management's guidance for FY2026 was 88.8% ±50bps — already an improvement from the crisis level. Coming in at 83.9% in Q1 is not just in-line: it's 490bps better than the full-year guidance midpoint, and 90bps better than Q1 2025. Even discounting the 20bps from the Optum Health loss contract reserve, the organic MCR is ~84.1% — still a genuine inflection.

Metric	Decision Tree Threshold	Actual	Result
Adjusted EPS	≥$6.48 = Beat	$7.23 FACT	✅ BEAT — +$0.75 (+9.4%)
MCR	<89.1% = no override	83.9% FACT	✅ NO OVERRIDE — 530bps clear
Revenue	≥$109.9B est.	$111.7B FACT	✅ BEAT — +$1.9B
Guidance	>$17.75 adj. EPS (prev.)	>$18.25 raised FACT	✅ RAISED — +$0.50/share
Ceasefire Status	Extended = Scenario A · Expiry = Scenario B	EXPIRY FACT	→ Scenario B (beat + expiry)

Updated Thesis — Post-Binary Status: STRENGTHENED

EST The MCR inflection validates the recovery thesis thesis in a way that no single prior data point had. Pricing discipline is working. Medical cost trend is stabilising. Optum Health is still dilutive (restructuring ongoing) but is no longer the disaster it was in 2025. The FY2026 guidance raise to >$18.25 means the market's residual fear of another guidance cut has diminished. At ~$348 and ~21–22x forward adjusted EPS (~$18.25 midpoint), UNH is not cheap — but it's not pricing in a recovery either. The bull case (clean margin improvement sustained into Q2 and Q3) would support $370–400 by year end.

Bull — MCR Sustains Below 85%

$370–410

Q2 MCR confirms trend · Optum margin recovery accelerates · Multiple expands toward 23–25x

+6–18% from current

Base — Gradual MCR Recovery

$340–375

MCR holds 84–86% range · Guidance confirmed at >$18.25 · Multiple stable 20–23x

–2% to +8% from current

Bear — MCR Re-Accelerates

$280–320

Q2 MCR back above 86% · Guidance cut · Stop at $285 limits downside

–8% to –18% (stop at $285)

⚠ What Would Now Invalidate the UNH Thesis

Q2 MCR back above 86% (reversal of today's improvement). Full-year guidance cut again. DOJ probe escalates to formal criminal charges. MCR above 89.1% at any point → stop triggers regardless. Price breaks $285 → trailing stop exits at market.

Tactical Trigger Dashboard — Day 12 · Post-Binary Update

✅ FIRED & COMPLETE

All Apr 6–18 triggers (NFLX trim, XOM R2, JPM scale, re-entry, V entry)Various✅ Complete

UNH Scenario B (Apr 21): Adj. EPS $7.23 >> $6.48 (beat) + ceasefire expiry → 25% reduced at VWAP 10:00–10:30. Stop raised $245→$285. ~$970 proceeds in cooling. $7.23 adj. ✅ EXECUTED

🔴 IMMINENT — TOMORROW

GLD Add $300 (fires Apr 22 open IF ceasefire expires): Bear prob ~32% (condition 1 ✅). Ceasefire expires tonight. If no formal extension confirmed by both parties by Wednesday pre-market → add $300 GLD at open. 32% bear FIRES WED IF NO EXTENSION

⏳ WATCHING / PENDING

50/30/20 Deploy UNH proceeds (~$970): 24h cooling ends Apr 23. 50%→cash, 30%→JPM/GS, 20%→re-entry reserve (not UNH — just trimmed).$970APR 23

V Scale-Up: Official talks confirmation required by Apr 25. Vance trip on hold. Scale-up blocked.BlockedAPR 25 DEADLINE

XOM 50% remaining: official US/Iranian scheduling → exit. Ceasefire collapse makes this less likely near-term.PendingWATCHING

AVGO Overweight Expiry: May 1. Trim 16%→13% absent new catalyst. R3 gate also blocks new AVGO capital.May 1WATCHING

BTC Trailing Stop: $70K. BTC ~$76.5K — above stop. Gate blocks new capital.$76.5KABOVE STOP

⛔ BLOCKED

R3 Correlation Gate: NFLX/AVGO 0.72 and BTC/ETH 0.78 — both above 0.70. Gate fully triggered. No new capital to NFLX, AVGO, BTC, ETH. 2 pairs >0.70 GATE ACTIVE

Model Retro — April 21 · Condensed (R5: hits summarised, misses/partials expanded)

HITS (summarised) Decision tree executed exactly as designed — no discretionary drift on binary day. Kill switch thresholds (MCR 89.1%, EPS $6.48) were correctly set. The MCR override threshold of 89.1% was not remotely triggered at 83.9%. Stop raise from $245 to $285 per Scenario B was pre-committed and executes without debate. Process quality on all of these: STRONG — each was falsifiable and specific.

HIT Predicted: MCR would be the key watch number and drive the scenario branch. STRONG All April 17 briefing materials flagged MCR as the primary signal. Consensus feared 85.7%. Actual 83.9%. The prediction that a sub-85% MCR would validate the recovery thesis was correct and specific. The 190bps beat on MCR is a genuine surprise, not a narrow beat.

MISS Predicted: ceasefire was likely to extend based on April 17 diplomatic momentum. WEAK The April 17 oil crash to $83 created overconfidence that a deal was imminent. This is exactly the self-reinforcing loop Perplexity warned about: using the market's own optimism (WTI price) as evidence of deal probability. WTI fell because the market priced a deal; then the falling WTI was cited as evidence of deal momentum. The US vessel seizure over the weekend reversed the entire thesis in 48 hours. Lesson: ceasefire probability should have been assessed against the underlying diplomatic gap (20yr vs 5yr uranium enrichment), not just the market price signal.

PARTIAL Predicted: Scenario A (beat + extension) was the modal scenario at ~40%. WEAK Beat occurred (correct). Extension did not (missed). The prediction was partially correct on earnings quality but wrong on ceasefire branch. Partial credit: the framework correctly handled the actual outcome (Scenario B), but the pre-brief probability assessment was poorly anchored to diplomatic reality.

UNHUnitedHealth · 75% held · stop raised · thesis strengthenedCORESTRENGTHENED

Entry $279 · Current ~$348 · +24.7% · Weight: ~9.75% · Stop: $285 · Next: Q2 Jul 16

Scenario B executed: 25% trimmed at VWAP ~$340–345, realising ~$210 gain on that tranche. Remaining 75% held with stop at $285 — this locks in a minimum ~+2% portfolio gain even if UNH reverses to stop. The MCR beat at 83.9% is the thesis validator. Full analysis in UNH Post-Binary tab. Thesis status: STRENGTHENED. The recovery from the 2025 crisis is earlier and more definitive than expected.

⚠ What Invalidates from Here

Q2 MCR back above 86%. DOJ formal charges. Guidance cut again. Price breaks $285 → exit remainder automatically.

AVGOBroadcom · ~$406 · AI capex thesis strongest · cluster gate blocks new capitalCORESTRENGTHENED

Entry $298 · Current ~$406 · +36.2% · 16% weight · Stop $270 · May 1 expiry

Thesis unchanged and remains the strongest single position in the portfolio by return/weight ratio (3.1% per 1%). R3 gate blocks new capital. May 1 overweight expiry: trim 16%→13% unless Jun 4 Q2 earnings provide a new catalyst to justify the extension. At $406, AVGO is +36% from entry — the AI capex thesis (Meta, Anthropic, Alphabet deals, $73B backlog) continues to compound. Stop at $270 is far from current price — trailing stop consideration may be appropriate as May 1 approaches.

NFLXNetflix · +9.7% today · thesis unchanged · Q2 trough playing outCOREUNCHANGED

Entry $97.50 · Current ~$97 · ≈ breakeven · 12% weight · Stop $85

NFLX +9.7% today — notable given the market is –0.51%. This is JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley's "buy the dip" thesis playing out four sessions after the Q2 guidance miss. The FCF raise to $12.5B and ad revenue trajectory are being repriced upward as investors separate the non-recurring Q2 content cost headwind from the underlying business quality. No action today — at target weight. Next gate: Q2 earnings Jul 16 to confirm the content cost trough.

XOM · V · GLD · BTC/ETH — Status Update

XOM (3% stub): Remaining 50%. Ceasefire collapse risk actually improves the XOM hedge value — if WTI returns above $100, XOM rises. Original exit trigger (official talks scheduled) is not currently approaching. Hold stub. Its hedge function is partial but non-zero.

V (1.5%): Scale-up window closes April 25. Vance Pakistan trip on hold, Iran not responding. Scale-up is effectively blocked for now. If ceasefire expires Wednesday without a deal, the V thesis (deal-materialises trade) is seriously weakened. Consider reducing V to 0.75% on Wednesday open if ceasefire formally collapses — convert it from a "deal" thesis to a "option on eventual deal" position at half size.

GLD (3.5%): Bear prob ~32% — condition 1 of add trigger met. Add $300 at Wednesday open if ceasefire expires. This would build GLD to ~4.5% weight, providing a meaningful hedge against the re-escalation scenario that is now the second most likely outcome (32%).

BTC (5%) / ETH (7%): BTC ~$76.5K — holding well above $70K trailing stop for the fourth Iran scare. ETH ~$2,317 — above $2,050 stop. R3 gate is active: no new capital to either. If ceasefire collapses Wednesday, crypto may take a 5–10% hit along with equities. Stops govern exit automatically.

Correlation Matrix — Full Pairwise · Day 12 (R3 Requirement)

Tech/Crypto Cluster Pairwise (30-day est.)

NFLX / AVGO0.72 ⚠ ABOVE GATE

BTC / ETH0.78 ⚠ ABOVE GATE

AVGO / BTC0.63

NFLX / BTC0.60

AVGO / ETH0.58

NFLX / ETH0.55

V (monitoring, not in gate)~0.45–0.65 regime-dep.

All EST · 30-day war period · EST

Gate Status + Bear Scenario Drawdown

R3 GateTRIGGERED (2 pairs)

NFLX –12% (risk-off)–$168

AVGO –12% (risk-off)–$225

BTC –15%–$86

ETH –15%–$120

UNH –10% (vs new stop $285)–$98 (capped by stop)

Bear cluster loss est.–$697

GLD +15% (if add fires)+$105

XOM +10% (oil spike)+$35

EST Net bear draw: ~$557 from ~$11,760 master = –4.7%

EST Key improvement vs April 17: the UNH stop raise from $245 to $285 has capped the worst-case UNH drawdown in the bear scenario. The GLD add (firing Wednesday) provides ~$105 offsetting gain in the re-escalation scenario. Net bear scenario drawdown is –4.7% est. — manageable and within the model's stated bear tolerance of –10 to –15%.

Portfolio Value (Master)

~$11,760

12-Day Return (est.)

+17.6%

Cash (incl. cooling)

~$3,170 est.

Non-Correlated Buffer

~43%

Bear Prob

~32%

Cash ~$3,170: existing ~$2,200 + ~$970 UNH Scenario B proceeds (24h cooling, deploys Apr 23 via 50/30/20). GLD add $300 fires Wednesday open if ceasefire expires. EST

All Positions — Day 12 Master Table (Post-Scenario B)

Ticker	Intent	Status	Weight	Est. P&L	Stop	Next Gate
NFLX	CORE	UNCHANGED · +9.7% today · thesis intact	~12%	~breakeven	$85	Q2 Jul 16
AVGO	CORE	STRENGTHENED · +2% today · gate active	~16%	+$497 est.	$270	May 1 expiry · Jun 4 Q2
UNH (75%)	CORE	✅ STRENGTHENED · Scen. B executed · stop $285	~9.75%	+$315 est. (remaining)	$285 ↑	Q2 Jul 16
XOM	HEDGE	50% remaining · ceasefire collapse may revive	~3%	+$41 est.	$128	Official talks (receding)
JPM/GS	STARTER→CORE	UNCHANGED · Apr 23 scale-up via 30% cooling tranche	~5% → ~7%	+$21 est.	Entry –7%	Apr 23 deploy · Q2
GLD	HEDGE	Add trigger condition 1 met · fires Wed open	~3.5% → ~4.5%	–$80 est.	–8% entry	Wed open if expiry
BTC (50%)	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED · resilient · above $70K stop	~5%	+$38 est.	$70K trail	Active
ETH	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED · above $2,050 stop	~7%	+$22 est.	$2,050	Active
V	STARTER	Scale-up blocked · re-evaluate Apr 25 · consider halving if Wed expiry	~1.5%	~$0	Entry –5%	Apr 25 deadline
Cash (strong)		Existing + UNH Scen. B proceeds cooling	~27%	~$3,170 est. · 50/30/20 deploys Apr 23 · GLD add $300 Wed if expiry

Date	Ticker	Action	Trigger / Rule	Price (est.)	Status
Apr 6–14	Various	Multiple entries, trims, scales	See Apr 17 log	Various	✓
Apr 17	NFLX / XOM	NFLX trim 16%→12% · XOM 50% exit (R2)	R4 expiry · Trump verbal	~$97 / ~$140	✓
Apr 18	V	BUY STARTER 1.5%	WTI 2 sessions <$88	Apr 18 open	Open · scale blocked
Apr 21	UNH	SCENARIO B: REDUCE 25%	Adj. EPS $7.23 >> $6.48 · ceasefire expiry · Decision tree locked Apr 17	VWAP ~$340–345 est.	✅ Executed · +$210 est.
Apr 21	UNH	STOP RAISED $245→$285	Scenario B: beat + expiry → raise stop on 75% remaining	—	✅ Active
Pending Apr 22		GLD add $300 if ceasefire expires without extension · V: reduce to 0.75% if expiry confirmed (consider)
Pending Apr 23		50/30/20 deploy ~$970 UNH Scenario B proceeds: 50%→cash, 30%→JPM/GS, 20%→re-entry (not UNH)
Pending Apr 25		V: re-evaluate or exit if no official Iran talks confirmation by close

April 21, 2026 — UNH Binary Executed · Ceasefire Expiry Tomorrow