Apex Capital · April 17 2026 — Day 10 · NFLX Post-Earnings

⚡ Today's Critical Path — In Order

DONEKill switch evaluated: FCF raised to $12.5B, ad rev on track for $3B FY. Kill switch does NOT fire. Position held.

ACT TODAYNFLX trim 16%→12% (risk-parity target) during session. Q2 guide miss removes overweight justification per R4. Proceeds (~$464) idle 24h per R1.

EXECUTEDXOM 50% exit per R2 — Trump verbal confirmation fired first tranche. ~$350 proceeds into cooling cash. Remaining 50% watches official scheduling.

LOCKEDUNH April 21 dual-binary decision tree finalised in this briefing. Four scenarios, pre-committed. No adjustments after today.

ACT TOMORROWV starter 3% at April 18 open — WTI confirmed 2 sessions below $88. Correlation cluster gate clear.

NFLX Q1: revenue $12.25B beat, EPS $1.23 (incl. $2.8B WBD termination fee) — but Q2 guidance $12.57B missed $12.64B consensus and Reed Hastings announced board exit · NFLX –10% to ~$96–97 · Kill switch clear (FCF raised to $12.5B, ad on track) · Trim 16%→12% per overweight expiry rule · XOM 50% exit on Trump verbal confirmation · WTI ~$83 (–12%), S&P +1.49% to 7,145 ATH · V entry trigger fires tomorrow · UNH April 21 decision tree locked below

📋 Standing Rule Amendments — Effective This Briefing (R1–R5)

R124-Hour Cooling Rule: When a kill switch or stop-loss fires on an earnings event, proceeds sit idle one full session before 50/30/20 allocation. Applied: NFLX trim + XOM 50% exit proceeds (~$814 total) idle today, deploy April 18.

R2XOM Split Exit Trigger: 50% exits on verbal presidential confirmation of imminent talks. Remaining 50% exits on official US or Iranian government scheduling. Applied today: 50% exited on Trump verbal.

R3Correlation Cluster Gate: No new capital to Tech/Crypto cluster (NFLX, AVGO, BTC, ETH) when 3+ positions show pairwise correlation above 0.70. Currently at edge — NFLX/AVGO 0.72 is the only pair above threshold. Gate not fully triggered. V is outside the cluster.

R4Overweight Expiry: Any position 4%+ above risk-parity target needs a hard expiry date. At expiry, new catalyst justifies extension or position trims to target. NFLX was 4% over: Q2 guide miss removes catalyst → trim executes today.

R5Process Quality in Retro: Each retro row carries a prediction quality label (STRONG/WEAK/VAGUE) independent of hit/miss. A vague prediction that is correct earns no analytical credit.

⚡ Day 10 Executive Summary — Master Portfolio Reference

Portfolio Value — Master (est.)

~$11,640

EST +16.4% from $10,000 start · NFLX –10% partially offset by AVGO/UNH/market gains · All sections reference this figure

NFLX Q1 Actuals

$12.25B

FACT +16% YoY · EPS $1.23 (incl. $2.8B WBD fee) · FCF $12.5B raised · Q2 guide $12.57B vs $12.64B est.

NFLX Today

~$96–97

FACT –10% · Kill switch clear · Trimming 16%→12% today · Proceeds cooling per R1

WTI / S&P

$83 / 7,145

FACT WTI –12% · S&P ATH · V trigger fires · XOM 50% exit · Deal being priced, not hoped

NFLX Sizing — Hard Fork Before/After

Weight Before

~16%

Post re-entry Apr 16 open

Weight After

~12%

Trimmed to risk-parity target

Proceeds (cooling)

~$464

Idle 24h per R1 · deploy Apr 18

P&L on Re-Entry Tranche

–$46 est.

Re-entry $106 → trim $97 · small loss on the new tranche only

Standing Actions

TRIM TODAYNFLX 16%→12%. Execute at a pullback in the first 90 minutes — not at the open gap which may be overdone. This is a sizing correction, not a thesis exit.

EXECUTEDXOM 50% exit on Trump verbal (R2). ~$350 proceeds in cooling cash. Remaining 50% waits for official US/Iranian scheduling confirmation.

ACT TOMORROWV 3% starter at April 18 open. WTI two sessions below $88. Correlation cluster gate clear. V preferred over MA for Hormuz reopening / cross-border volume exposure.

LOCKEDUNH April 21 plan locked — see UNH tab. Four scenarios, pre-committed responses, override conditions. No changes permitted after today.

HOLDAVGO, JPM/GS, GLD, BTC, ETH unchanged. AVGO overweight expiry May 1. BTC trailing stop $70K active. GLD bear prob 18% — add trigger not met.

Key Developments — April 17, 2026

🎬 NFLX NFLX Q1 Beat + FCF Raised — But Q2 Guide Miss and Hastings Exit Drives –10% FACT Revenue $12.25B (+16% YoY), EPS $1.23 vs $0.76 est. (includes $2.8B WBD breakup fee — organic EPS ~$0.73). FCF guidance raised to $12.5B from $11B. Ad-supported tier: 60%+ of Q1 signups, advertiser count +70% YoY to 4,000 clients. Ad revenue on track to double to $3B. Q2 revenue guided $12.57B vs $12.64B consensus — ~$70M miss driving the selloff. Co-founder Reed Hastings announced board exit in June. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley recommend buying the dip at current levels.

🕊️ Geopolitical WTI –12% to $83 — S&P ATH 7,145 — Trump Verbal Confirmation of Imminent Deal FACT WTI crude fell ~$11 in a single session to ~$83 — the largest decline since the ceasefire. Trump verbally confirmed a deal is imminent. S&P 500 hit 7,145, a new all-time high, now 3.6%+ above the pre-war Feb 27 peak. The market is pricing a deal, not hoping for one. This creates snapback risk: the speed of the rally means any diplomatic setback before April 21 would hit the portfolio hard from elevated levels. Overconfidence is the primary risk now, not pessimism.

💼 Portfolio NFLX Drawdown Partially Offset by Broad Rally — Master Value ~$11,640 EST NFLX –10% reduces the 16% position by ~$193 estimated. The trim to 12% locks in the smaller position going forward. AVGO, UNH, JPM/GS, and BTC all benefit from the S&P ATH and oil decline. Net effect: master value ~$11,640 from ~$12,100 — a step back, but not a crisis. The framework performed correctly: kill switch calibrated properly, trim rule executed on schedule.

Forward Calendar

APR 18

V 3% starter at open · 50/30/20 on ~$814 cooling proceeds ACT

APR 21

UNH Q1 + ceasefire expiry — dual binary · plan locked CRITICAL

APR 24

XOM Q1 earnings (may be moot if fully exited) MED

APR 28–29

FOMC — hold expected · tone governs June cut odds HIGH

MAY 1

AVGO overweight expiry — trim to 13% absent new catalyst MED

JUN 4

AVGO Q2 earnings — primary AVGO catalyst HIGH

Macro Scenario Probabilities — Post Oil Crash

🐂 Bull 55% ↑ (was 48%)⚖️ Base 27% ↓🐻 Bear 18% ↓ — but snapback risk is real

Bull

55% (±12%)

Deal Materialises

Official joint statement this weekend or Monday. Hormuz reopens. Oil $75–82. Fed June cut path reopens. S&P 7,400+. AVGO and V/MA lead. NFLX recovers toward $108–115 as Q2 overhang prices out.

Overconfidence warning: Market already pricing ~55% of this. If deal is merely "extended talks" rather than "framework agreed," the rally partially reverses.

Confidence: MED — verbal ≠ signed.

Base

27% (±10%)

Stalemate Extends

Talks begin but drag past April 21. Ceasefire extended informally. Oil stabilises $83–92. S&P range $6,900–7,200. NFLX stays rangebound $90–105.

Confidence: MED

Bear

18% (±10%)

Deal Fails — Rally Reverses

Talks collapse. Iran closes maritime routes. WTI spikes back to $110+. S&P reverses ATH sharply — the same speed that drove oil down $11 could reverse it equally fast. GLD add trigger fires.

This is the "market got ahead of diplomacy" scenario. Do not dismiss because the bull case is loud.

Confidence: MED — fragility is highest at the moment of maximum optimism.

NFLXNetflix — Q1 2026 Post-Earnings AnalysisCORETRIMMED TO 12% · THESIS UNCHANGED

Entry $97.50 · Re-entry ~$106 · Current ~$96–97 · ≈ breakeven blendedNew weight: ~12% · Stop: $85 · FCF $12.5B · Ad $3B FY track · Freshness: UNCHANGED (Apr 17)

Kill Switch Evaluation — Actual vs Thresholds

Metric	Threshold	Actual	Status
Ad Revenue (implied quarterly)	≥$550M = hold · <$500M = exit	~$600–700M implied ($3B÷4) EST	🟢 HOLD
FCF Guidance Full Year	≥$11B	$12.5B raised FACT	🟢 RAISED — bullish
Q2 Revenue Guidance	$12.64B consensus	$12.57B — $70M miss FACT	🟡 MISS — removes overweight
Organic EPS (ex $2.8B WBD fee)	~$0.76–0.79	~$0.73 est. EST	🟡 SLIGHT MISS organically
Governance	No major change	Reed Hastings exits board June FACT	🟡 SENTIMENT — not fundamental

Kill switch does NOT fire. Both hard criteria (ad rev ≥$500M run rate, FCF ≥$11B) are met — FCF was actually raised. The Q2 miss and Hastings departure are soft negatives that remove the overweight justification but do not invalidate the long-term thesis. EST At $97 and ~31x forward P/E, the valuation is less stretched than at $107. The $12.5B FCF floor is the strongest signal in the entire print. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley both rate this a dip to buy.

EST Why we trim to 12%: The 4% overweight was justified by a single catalyst — an April 16 bull print driving immediate re-rating. That catalyst resolved as mixed-to-positive, not bull. Per R4, the overweight expires when the catalyst resolves without a confirming outcome. Trim to target. This is the rule working as designed.

Bull — Q2 is the Trough

$110–125

H2 content cost normalises · Ad $3B confirmed · P/E 34–40x · FCF floor $12.5B

+13–28% from entry

Base — Guidance Overhang

$95–110

Market digests Q2 · FCF provides floor · P/E 28–32x · Rangebound

–2% to +13% from entry

Bear — Q3 Also Misses

$78–90

Second consecutive guide miss · Sentiment deteriorates · Stop $85

–8% to –20% from entry

⚠ What Would Invalidate NFLX Thesis

Q3 guidance miss (second consecutive decel). FCF guide cut from $12.5B. Ad revenue Q2 below $600M implied quarterly run rate. Price breaks $85 stop. Management suggests ad tier headwinds are structural, not timing.

UNHUnitedHealth — April 21 Dual Binary Decision Tree — LOCKEDCOREPLAN LOCKED · NO FURTHER CHANGES

Entry $279 · Current ~$315 · +12.9%~13% weight · Stop: $245 · Q1 consensus: EPS $6.48 / Rev $109.9B

Pre-Committed Scenario Responses

SCENARIO A — Beat + Extension

Conditions: EPS ≥$6.48 AND ceasefire formally extended.
Action: Hold 100%. Raise stop $245→$285. Thesis → STRENGTHENED.
Target: $340–360 over 3–6 months.

SCENARIO B — Beat + Expiry

Conditions: EPS ≥$6.48 AND ceasefire expires.
Action: Reduce 25% in first 2 hours. Hold 75%, stop $245. Re-evaluate within 48h.
Rationale: Earnings win offsets macro risk — partial reduction locks gains.

SCENARIO C — Miss + Extension

Conditions: EPS <$6.48 AND ceasefire extended.
Action: Reduce 40% in first 2 hours. Hold 60%, stop $245.
Rationale: Ceasefire extension is a real positive — don't over-react to single miss.

SCENARIO D — Miss + Expiry

Conditions: EPS <$6.48 AND ceasefire expires without extension.
Action: Exit 70% in first 90 minutes. Hold 30% with stop $245. If $245 breaks → exit remainder at market.
Rationale: Maximum risk concentration — both catalysts negative simultaneously.

Override Conditions (Automatic — Take Precedence Over Scenarios)

(1) MCR reported above 89.1% → full exit regardless of scenario. (2) DOJ probe upgraded to formal charges on April 21 → full exit at market. (3) Price breaks $245 intraday → trailing stop exits remainder automatically.

Metric	Bear Line	Bull Line	Why It Matters
EPS	<$6.00	≥$6.48	Determines beat/miss branch
MCR	>89%	<85%	Structural health — drives multiple
Ceasefire	Expired	Extended	The macro overlay
Revenue	<$108B	≥$109.9B	Secondary quality signal

⚠ THIS PLAN IS LOCKED

No adjustments April 18, 19, 20 or morning of April 21 based on pre-market moves, analyst notes, or news flow. Only the three override conditions change the plan. Everything else: execute the pre-committed scenario mechanically.

Tactical Trigger Dashboard — Day 10 · Rules R1–R5 Active

✅ ALL FIRED (complete)

Oil Trigger Apr 13: WTI >$105 → trim NFLX/AVGO 20%$105✅

JPM Beat Apr 14: EPS $5.94 → scale JPM/GS 3%→5%$5.94✅

Re-Entry Apr 16: WTI <$95 → $175 NFLX + $175 AVGO$88✅

NFLX Kill Switch Clear Apr 17: FCF $12.5B, ad on track → no fire$12.5B FCF✅ CLEAR

NFLX R4 Expiry Apr 17: Q2 miss → trim 16%→12%$464 proceeds✅ COOLING

XOM R2 50% Exit Apr 17: Trump verbal → 50% exited$350 proceeds✅ COOLING

🔴 LIVE / IMMINENT

V Entry (fires Apr 18 open): WTI 2 sessions below $88. 3% Visa starter. Cluster gate clear.WTI $83FIRES APR 18

UNH April 21 Dual Binary: Decision tree locked above. Execute mechanically.Apr 21LOCKED

XOM Remaining 50%: Official US/Iranian scheduling confirmation → exit.Verbal done50% REMAINING

R1 Cooling: ~$814 proceeds idle today. 50/30/20 deployment starts Apr 18.$814COOLING

AVGO Overweight Expiry: May 1. Trim 16%→13% absent new catalyst.May 1WATCHING

BTC Trailing Stop: $70K. BTC ~$74K — above stop.$74KABOVE STOP

GLD Add: Bear prob >30% + ceasefire expires. Currently ~18% bear. NOT MET.18% bearNOT MET

Model Retro — April 17 · Process Quality Labels Active (R5)

MISS Predicted: NFLX beat leads to thesis strengthening. STRONG PREDICTION Revenue beat occurred; FCF was raised. But Q2 guidance miss and Hastings departure created net-negative market reaction. Process quality: strong prediction — specific thresholds, specific consequences. The kill switch framework was correctly calibrated. Lesson: guidance risk exists even when the current quarter is strong. The "beat Q1, miss Q2 guide" scenario was underweighted.

HIT Predicted: Kill switch would not fire if FCF was raised and ad revenue on track. STRONG PREDICTION FCF raised to $12.5B. Ad on track for $3B. Kill switch correctly did not fire. Framework correctly distinguished soft negatives (guidance, governance) from hard invalidation criteria.

HIT Predicted: WTI would continue falling if diplomatic signals were confirmed. STRONG PREDICTION WTI fell $11+ in a single session to $83. Trump verbal confirmation was the catalyst. The oil-diplomacy inverse correlation has tracked exactly as modelled across 10 days. This was a falsifiable, specific prediction.

HIT Predicted: V/MA entry trigger would approach as oil fell below $88. STRONG PREDICTION WTI now at $83 — two sessions confirmed below threshold. Entry fires tomorrow. The IMMINENT priority label was correct.

PARTIAL Predicted: overweight justified through earnings if thesis held. WEAK PREDICTION Directionally correct — overweight resolved at earnings as predicted. But the prediction was conditional and the condition wasn't cleanly met. Partial credit: trim is the mechanically correct response. Prediction quality is weak because the "if X then hold / if Y then trim" framing survives almost any outcome.

NFLXNetflix · 12% weight · thesis unchangedCOREUNCHANGED · TRIMMED

Entry $97.50 · Current ~$97 · ≈ breakeven blended · FCF $12.5B · Ad $3B FY · Stop $85 · Freshness: UNCHANGED (Apr 17)

See NFLX Deep Dive tab for full analysis. Summary: thesis intact on long-term FCF and ad trajectory. Q2 content cost headwind is timing, not structural. At 31x forward P/E with $12.5B FCF floor, current valuation is reasonable. Trimmed to 12% per R4. Stop at $85.

AVGOBroadcom · strongest thesis · discount rate tailwind addedCORESTRENGTHENED

Entry $298 · Current ~$393 · +31.9% · 16% weight · May 1 expiry · Stop $270

Meta + Anthropic + Alphabet deals confirmed. $73B backlog growing. FCF and margin on track for Jun 4. New tailwind: falling 10Y yield from deal materialisation (WTI $83 → lower inflation expectations → lower WACC) justifies +10–15% multiple expansion independent of earnings. EST The May 1 overweight expiry stands. Trim 16%→13% on May 1 absent new catalyst. Stop $270.

UNHUnitedHealth · plan locked · Apr 21COREPLAN LOCKED

Entry $279 · Current ~$315 · +12.9% · 13% weight · Stop $245

Full decision tree in UNH Apr 21 Plan tab. No further analysis. The plan governs.

XOMExxonMobil · 50% exited · remaining 50% watchingHEDGEEXITING

~3% weight remaining · Stop $128 · Remaining 50% exits on official scheduling

War premium largely expired at WTI $83. 50% exited on Trump verbal per R2. Remaining 50% exits when US or Iranian government officially confirms scheduled talks. At current oil price, XOM's intrinsic value is well below the geopolitical peak. The hedge has served its purpose — it preserved capital during the escalation and is now being systematically unwound as the thesis expires.

JPM/GS · GLD · BTC/ETH — All Unchanged

JPM/GS (5%): Q1 beats confirmed. Normalisation thesis intact. S&P ATH validates. Next gate: Q2 earnings. Hold with entry –7% stop.

GLD (3.5%): De-escalation regime — hedge function attenuated. Bear prob 18%, falling. Add trigger at 30% not met and moving further away. Small residual hedge for tail risks. Hold.

BTC/ETH (5%/7%): BTC ~$74K above $70K trailing stop. ETH ~$2,325 above $2,050 stop. ETH/BTC ratio 0.0313 — outperformance in ratio terms. FOMC April 28–29 is the next major macro risk for crypto. Both positions: hold, trailing stops govern exit.

Watchlist — V Entry Fires Tomorrow · Priorities Updated

VVisaDeal PlayHIGH

🔴 ENTRY AT APR 18 OPEN

WTI 2 sessions below $88 confirmed. V preferred for global Hormuz / cross-border trade volume exposure. 3% starter at open tomorrow.

Entry

3% at April 18 open · stop entry –5% · Correlation cluster gate clear

COSTCostcoDefensiveHIGH

🟡 MAY EARNINGS GATE

Trade-down thesis persists. May Q3 earnings the cleaner gate vs chasing macro narrative now.

Entry

$870–900 pullback OR Q3 beat ≥$13.50 EPS → 4% starter

EQIXEquinix · Data CentreAI InfraMED

🟡 AVGO DEALS + YIELD TAILWIND

AI capex confirmed by AVGO deals. Falling yields help REIT multiples. Conviction upgraded. Still not chasing current levels.

Entry

$680–720 pullback OR tech cluster <38% → 3% starter

BACBank of AmericaFinancialMED

🟡 Q1 IMMINENT

Most rate-sensitive major bank. JPM template: if credit provisions underrun, conviction upgrades. Curve steepening from deal materialisation benefits NII directly.

Entry

Q1 beat + provisions below est. → 2% starter

LINLindeIndustrialMED

⚪ DORMANT

Low correlation diversifier. No catalyst until tech cluster warrants rebalancing.

Entry

$385–400 pullback OR tech cluster >50% → 3% starter

GLD+Gold AddHedgeLOW

⚪ DORMANT — bear prob 18%

Bear probability falling as deal prices in. Add trigger moving further away. Only reactivates in re-escalation.

Trigger

Bear prob >30% + ceasefire expires without extension → add $300. NOT MET.

Portfolio Value (Master)

~$11,640

11-Day Return

+16.4%

Cash (incl. cooling)

~$1,864

Non-Correlated

~35%

Bear Prob

18%

Master value ~$11,640. Cash includes $1,050 existing + $464 NFLX trim (cooling) + $350 XOM 50% (cooling). 50/30/20 on ~$814 starts April 18. V entry uses $350 from existing cash. EST

All Positions — Day 10 Master Table

Ticker	Intent	Status	Weight	Est. P&L	Stop	Next Gate
NFLX	CORE	UNCHANGED · trimmed 16%→12%	~12%	–$46 est.	$85	Q2 Jul 16
AVGO	CORE	STRENGTHENED · discount rate tailwind	~16%	+$456 est.	$270	Jun 4 Q2 · May 1 expiry
UNH	CORE	UNCHANGED · plan locked · Apr 21	~13%	+$236 est.	$245	Apr 21 Q1
XOM	HEDGE	EXITING · 50% out · 50% remaining	~3%	+$37 est.	$128	Official talks announcement
JPM/GS	STARTER→CORE	UNCHANGED	~5%	+$19 est.	Entry –7%	Q2
GLD	HEDGE	DE-ESCAL. REGIME	~3.5%	–$85 est.	–8% entry	Apr 21 scenario
BTC (50%)	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED	~5%	+$34 est.	$70K trail	Active
ETH	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED	~7%	+$19 est.	$2,050	Active
V (pending)	STARTER	Entry fires Apr 18 open	→3%	—	Entry –5%	Apr 18 open
Cash (cooling)		NFLX trim + XOM 50% idle	~16%	~$1,864 · 50/30/20 starts Apr 18 · V uses $350 from existing cash

Trade Log — Day 10 Complete

Date	Ticker	Action	Trigger / Rule	Price	Status
Apr 6	NFLX/AVGO/UNH/XOM	BUY CORE/HEDGE	Thesis entries	Various	Open
Apr 6	SOL	SHORT → CLOSED	High-beta hedge	$86	+$54 ✓
Apr 7	XOM/BTC/ETH	TRIM/BUY/HARVEST	Ceasefire risk-on	Various	✓
Apr 8	JPM/GS	BUY STARTER	Normalisation thesis	Apr 8 open	Open 5%
Apr 13	NFLX/AVGO/GLD	TRIM 20% / BUY HEDGE	WTI >$105 + bear prob >25%	Various	✓
Apr 14	JPM/GS	SCALE 3%→5%	JPM beat trigger	Apr 14	✓
Apr 16	NFLX/AVGO	RE-ENTRY $175 each	WTI <$95 trigger	~$106/$390	✓
Apr 17	NFLX	TRIM 16%→12%	R4: Q2 guide miss removes overweight catalyst	~$97	Cooling R1
Apr 17	XOM	EXIT 50% — R2	Trump verbal confirmation	~$140 est.	Cooling R1
Apr 18	V	BUY STARTER 3%	WTI 2 sessions <$88	Apr 18 open	Pending
Pending		Apr 18: 50/30/20 on $814 cooling proceeds · XOM 50% remaining: official talks → exit · Apr 21: UNH dual binary per locked plan

Key structural changes this briefing: (1) Shared CSS (apex-core.css) now active — reports reference external stylesheet, reducing file size ~65%. (2) Five standing rules formalised (R1–R5): 24h cooling, XOM split trigger, correlation cluster gate, overweight expiry, retro process quality. (3) NFLX kill switch evaluated and cleared — trimmed 16%→12% per R4 overweight expiry. (4) XOM 50% exited per R2 on Trump verbal — split trigger used for first time. (5) UNH April 21 dual-binary decision tree locked — four scenarios, override conditions, no further changes. (6) V entry fires at April 18 open — first new position since JPM/GS April 14 scale-up. (7) Process quality labels added to retro (R5): STRONG/WEAK/VAGUE. (8) AVGO discount rate tailwind added to bull case: falling yields → lower WACC → +10–15% multiple expansion.

April 17, 2026 — NFLX Post-Earnings · UNH April 21 Plan