Apex Capital · April 16 2026 — Day 9 · NFLX Earnings Night

Re-entry executed at open ($175 NFLX + $175 AVGO) · S&P 500 +0.8% to 7,022 — fresh all-time high · WTI ~$88 continuing to fall · Trump: war "very close to over" · NFLX trading ~$107.55 (range $105–$108) ahead of print · Options pricing ±5.8% move · Earnings call 4:45PM ET · Full NFLX deep dive in tomorrow's April 17 briefing once actuals are confirmed

⚡ Day 9 Executive Summary — One Master Portfolio Reference

Portfolio Value — Master (est.)

~$12,100

EST All sections reference this figure · +21.0% from $10,000 start · Reflects S&P ATH and oil decline · Pre-earnings NFLX result

S&P 500

7,022

FACT +0.8% · Fresh all-time high · Erased all war losses and surpassed pre-war peak · War "very close to over" pricing

WTI Oil

~$88

FACT Down from $105+ at peak · Approaching bull-case threshold of sustained $88 · XOM exit trigger live

NFLX Day Close

$107.55

FACT Re-entry executed ~$106 at open · +$9.05 / +9.3% vs $97.50 entry · Earnings after close — result pending

Post-Re-Entry Portfolio State — Updated Weights

NFLX Weight

~16%

Re-entry +$175 · ~$1,932 position

AVGO Weight

~16%

Re-entry +$175 · ~$1,936 position

Cash Reserve

~$1,050

Post $350 re-entry · Fire extinguisher

P&L Impact (re-entry)

+$0 locked

Cost basis rebuilt ~$106/$390 · P&L contingent on NFLX print

⚖ Overweight vs Risk-Parity Target — Expiry Rules (new)

NFLX Target: 12% Actual: 16% +4% over Expiry: Apr 16 AH print. If hold → reassess at Apr 17. If kill switch fires → auto-resolves to 8% or 0%.

AVGO Target: 13% Actual: 16% +3% over Expiry: Jun 4 Q2 earnings. If no new catalyst by May 1 → trim back to 14%.

UNH Target: 13% Actual: 13% On target No expiry needed.

BTC Target: 4% Actual: 5% +1% over Governed by trailing stop — auto-resolves. No manual expiry needed.

Standing Actions

DONERe-entry executed at open: $175 NFLX at ~$106, $175 AVGO at ~$390. Both confirmed from re-entry reserve. Cash reserve: ~$1,050 remaining.

LIVENFLX earnings: apply kill switch exactly as defined. Ad revenue ≥$550M + FCF $11B+ = hold full position. Ad $500–550M = cut 50% at tomorrow's open. Ad <$500M = exit entirely at tomorrow's open. No discretion. Actual results in tomorrow's briefing.

WATCHXOM exit trigger approaching: WTI ~$88, Trump says war "very close to over." If official announcement of next-round Iran talks confirmed by primary US or Iranian government source → exit XOM at next open. Bloomberg/AP reports alone are not sufficient. Hold until official.

PLAN DUE TMRUNH April 21 dual-binary decision tree: Must be complete in tomorrow's briefing. Four scenarios: beat+extension, beat+expiry, miss+extension, miss+expiry. Pre-commit position sizes and stops for each. Do not leave this for April 21 morning.

APPROACHINGV/MA watchlist entry trigger: WTI at $88 is approaching the sustained-below-$88 threshold that triggers a V or MA starter. If oil closes below $88 for two consecutive sessions → initiate 3% starter in V or MA as "deal materialises" pure-play. Currently one session away.

Key Developments — April 16, 2026

🕊️ Geopolitical Trump: War "Very Close to Over" — S&P 500 Hits All-Time High — WTI Falls to $88 FACT Trump said today the conflict is "very close to over" and Iranian authorities "appear willing" to reach a peace agreement. WTI fell to ~$88 — down from $105+ at the April 13 peak, a 16% decline in 3 sessions. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022, a fresh all-time high, fully erasing all war-era losses and surpassing the pre-war peak. The market is now pricing a deal, not merely hoping for one. EST The critical question is whether the market is ahead of the diplomatic reality — "very close to over" is a Trump characterisation, not a confirmed joint statement.

🚢 Hormuz US Blockade Fully Implemented — Second Round of Talks Expected "This Week" FACT The US military confirmed the naval blockade on Iranian ports is fully implemented. Separately, a second round of US-Iran talks is being discussed, with reports suggesting they could begin as early as Thursday. Brent crude steadied above $94 per barrel as markets weigh ceasefire extension prospects against the still-active blockade. Iran's military threat to close the Red Sea and Persian Gulf if the blockade continues is still on the table — this is the tail risk that the bear scenario depends on. Goldman's Hormuz flow data: traffic running at ~10% of normal levels.

🎬 NFLX NFLX Trading $107.55 Pre-Print — Options ±5.8% — Kill Switch Armed FACT NFLX traded in a $105–$108 range today, closing at $107.55 on volume of 38M shares (above 32.6M average). Options pricing implies a ±5.8% post-earnings move. The earnings call is at 4:45 PM ET. Consensus: EPS $0.76–0.77 on $12.17B revenue (+15.5% YoY). The single most important number is ad revenue — management guided full-year ad revenue to roughly double from 2025's $1.5B, implying ~$3B for 2026, or approximately $750M per quarter at run rate. Q1 will likely show $550–620M given ad business ramp — anything above $580M would be a genuine beat.

📈 Markets S&P 500 All-Time High 7,022 — Tech Leading — Earnings Season Positive FACT The S&P 500 closed at 7,022 (+0.8%), its first all-time high since before the February 28 war outbreak. Tech led across the board. The rally is driven by (1) diplomatic progress, (2) oil falling back toward normalised levels, and (3) early earnings season confirming consumer and corporate health. EST Portfolio impact: the S&P ATH validates the "eventual deal" thesis the portfolio has been positioned around since Day 1. If NFLX delivers tonight, the portfolio is positioned for a strong week ahead of the April 21 dual binary.

💰 XOM Watch XOM Thesis Weakening Rapidly — Exit Trigger Close But Not Yet Official FACT WTI at $88 is now 17% below the XOM hedge entry thesis price. The geopolitical premium XOM was bought to capture has been substantially compressed. The exit trigger — official announcement of next-round Iran talks — has not formally been met. But the gap between "very close to over" and an official joint statement may be hours to days. EST XOM's P&L at entry (~$135 blended) versus current ~$145–150 represents a meaningful realised gain if exited here. Holding too long after the war premium deflates risks giving back gains. Watch closely overnight and tomorrow morning.

Forward Calendar

TONIGHT

NFLX Q1 earnings — kill switch governing LIVE

APR 17

NFLX post-earnings deep dive + UNH dual-binary plan CRITICAL

APR 17–18

Potential 2nd US–Iran talks round WATCH

APR 21

UNH Q1 earnings + ceasefire expiry — dual binary CRITICAL

APR 24

XOM Q1 earnings (may be moot if exit trigger fires first) MED

APR 28–29

FOMC — hold expected; tone critical for June cut odds HIGH

MAY 12

April CPI — first full war-month energy print HIGH

Macro Scenario Probabilities — Updated · Trump "Very Close to Over" Shifts Bull Case

🐂 Bull 48% ↑ (was 43%)⚖️ Base 32% ↓ (was 35%)🐻 Bear 20% ↓ (was 22%)

Bull

48% (±12%) — raised on Trump "very close to over" + S&P ATH

Deal Materialises

Second round of talks → formal agreement. Hormuz fully reopens. Oil $80–88 sustained. Fed resumes cut path. S&P toward 7,400–7,600. NFLX/AVGO re-rate on multiple expansion. V/MA entry triggers. XOM exit triggered.

What would confirm: Official joint US-Iran statement. Hormuz traffic above 50 ships/day. WTI sustained below $88.

Confidence: MED · Trump statement is not the same as a signed deal

Base

32% (±10%) — compressed as bull becomes more probable

Stalemate Extends

Talks begin but drag on past April 21. Ceasefire extended informally. Oil stabilises $88–96. No quick deal. Earnings season sustains market. S&P range $6,800–7,200.

What would confirm: Second round of talks begins but no framework agreed. WTI stays $88–96. Ceasefire extended without final resolution.

Confidence: MED

Bear

20% (±10%) — reduced but Iran military threat is non-trivial

Re-Escalation

Talks collapse. Iran executes maritime closure of Red Sea + Persian Gulf + Hormuz simultaneously. Supply shock deepens to 10–11M bbl/day. WTI spikes above $115. Fed trapped. S&P breaks below $6,200. GLD add trigger fires.

What would confirm: Iran formally closes maritime routes. Ceasefire expires April 21 without extension. WTI spikes above $108 in a single session.

Confidence: MED · Iran's maritime threat today keeps this tail risk alive — do not dismiss it at 20% simply because the bull case is loudest

Tactical Trigger Dashboard — Day 9 Status

✅ FIRED TRIGGERS (complete)

Oil Escalation Trigger (Apr 13): WTI >$105 → trim NFLX/AVGO 20%WTI $105✅ FIRED Apr 13

JPM Beat Trigger (Apr 14): JPM beats Q1 → scale JPM/GS 3%→5%EPS $5.94✅ FIRED Apr 14

Re-Entry Trigger (Apr 16 open): WTI <$95 → $175 NFLX + $175 AVGOWTI $88–92✅ FIRED Apr 16 Open

🔴 LIVE / IMMINENT TRIGGERS

NFLX Kill Switch (LIVE): Ad revenue <$500M = exit; $500–550M = reduce 50%; ≥$550M + FCF $11B+ = hold. Results announced tonight 4:45PM ET. LIVE NOW ARMED

XOM Exit Trigger (APPROACHING): Official announcement of next-round Iran talks → exit XOM at next open. Trump "very close to over" is NOT yet official. One session away from possible trigger. WTI $88 APPROACHING

V/MA Entry Trigger (APPROACHING): WTI sustained below $88 for 2 sessions → initiate 3% V or MA starter. WTI at $88 today — one confirmed close needed. WTI $88 1 SESSION AWAY

⏳ WAITING TRIGGERS

GLD Additional Add: Bear prob >30% + ceasefire expires without extension. Bear now 20% — NOT MET.20% bearNOT MET

JPM/GS Scale to 8%: Requires Q2 earnings confirmation — not yet scheduled.Q2 pendingWAITING

UNH April 21 Plan: Decision tree must be drafted by April 17 — not yet written.Due Apr 17DRAFT NOW

BTC Trailing Stop: Active at $70K. BTC ~$74K — $4K above stop. Intact.~$74KABOVE STOP

Model Retro — April 16 Morning Predictions vs Actuals

HIT Predicted: Re-entry executes at open per rule, no discretionary override. $175 NFLX at ~$106, $175 AVGO at ~$390 — both executed at open as pre-coded. The system did not hesitate despite the NFLX earnings binary being hours away. This is exactly the behaviour the framework is designed to produce: rules execute regardless of narrative anxiety. The re-entry was the right call given the oil rule, even if the earnings outcome is uncertain.

HIT Predicted: Oil continues declining toward bull-case territory as talk signals multiply. WTI fell to ~$88 — now at the lower bound of the "bull scenario confirmed" threshold. Trump's statement today is the strongest US signal yet. The oil-diplomacy correlation is tracking exactly as modelled. If WTI holds $88 or below for another session, the V/MA trigger fires and the portfolio adds its first pure "deal materialises" position.

HIT Predicted: S&P reaches new high on deal-pricing and earnings season momentum. S&P closed at 7,022 — a fresh all-time high, confirming the market is pricing a deal, not just hoping for one. The portfolio's equity-heavy positioning has benefited directly. The original April 6 thesis — buy the normalisation, not the escalation — has played out structurally over the 9 days of this simulation.

PARTIAL Predicted: GLD holds or rises modestly as hedge function persists. Partially wrong: GLD fell again as oil declined and peace signals multiplied. This is the second consecutive session GLD has declined on de-escalation news. This confirms the regime observation from yesterday's retro: GLD is in a de-escalation regime right now, not an inflation-fear regime. The 3.5% weight is small enough that the drag is manageable (~$60 est.), but it is a signal that the hedge's current function is attenuated. The add trigger at >30% bear prob remains the right gate.

MISS Predicted: XOM exit trigger may fire today on official talk announcement. No official announcement yet — Trump's "very close to over" is a characterisation, not a joint statement. The trigger requires an official announcement from the US government (White House) or an Iranian government confirmation of scheduled talks. We are close but not there. The lesson: the trigger definition matters. Verbal signals from Trump are not the same as official diplomatic scheduling. This precision has protected the position from an emotionally premature exit.

NFLXNetflix — Q1 Earnings PendingCORE🔴 KILL SWITCH LIVE

Entry $97.50 · Re-entry ~$106 · Current $107.55 · +10.3% blendedWeight: ~16%Stop: $85 · Thesis freshness: STRENGTHENED (Apr 13 GS upgrade) — evidence <5 days old ✓

The thesis is intact and was reinforced today by the broader market rally and oil decline. Stay-at-home viewing during the war period likely added modest subscriber tailwinds. The kill switch governs from here — the position's fate tonight is in the ad revenue number and the FCF guide, not in further narrative analysis. The full NFLX deep dive with ARPU model, ad-tier run-rate analysis, and post-earnings sizing decision will be in tomorrow's April 17 briefing.

⚠ Kill Switch Thresholds (locked)

Ad revenue <$500M → exit entire position at tomorrow's open.
Ad revenue $500–550M → reduce 50% at tomorrow's open.
Ad revenue ≥$550M AND FCF ≥$11B → hold full position, update thesis.
FCF guide cut below $10B regardless of ad revenue → reassess immediately.

AVGOBroadcom — AI Infrastructure · Meta + Anthropic deals confirmedCORESTRENGTHENED ↑↑

Entry $298 · Re-entry ~$390 · Current ~$393 · +31.9% blendedWeight: ~16%Stop: $270 · Overweight expiry: May 1 if no new catalyst · Thesis freshness: STRENGTHENED (Apr 15 Meta deal) ✓

AVGO is the strongest thesis in the portfolio and has remained so for 9 days. The Meta partnership announced yesterday is an incremental backlog item, not a one-off event. The Anthropic + Alphabet deals from the same week add further confirmation that the AI compute buildout is real and Broadcom is a primary infrastructure beneficiary. The Jun 4 Q2 earnings is the next major catalyst gate. Between now and then, any additional hyperscaler deal announcement is an incremental positive. The 3% overweight above risk-parity target expires May 1 absent new catalysts — locked.

Bull

$480–520

AI capex accelerates · Further hyperscaler deals

+61–74% from entry

Base

$430–480

Backlog execution · Jun 4 earnings confirm

+44–61% from entry

Bear

$270–320

AI capex deferrals · Recession deepens · Stop at $270

–9% to +7% from entry

UNHUnitedHealth — April 21 Dual BinaryCOREPLAN DUE TOMORROW

Entry $279 · Current ~$315 · +12.9%Weight: ~13%Stop: $245 · Thesis: UNCHANGED · Apr 21 = most dangerous date on calendar

EST UNH April 21 Decision Tree (to be formalised tomorrow):

A: Beat + Extension
Hold full position. Raise stop to $285. Target $340–360.

B: Beat + Expiry
Hold 70%, reduce 30% to lock partial gains. Stop stays $245.

C: Miss + Extension
Reduce 50%. Re-evaluate within 48h. Stop $245.

D: Miss + Expiry
Exit 70% same session. Keep 30% with hard stop at $245.

⚠ What Would Change the Plan

MCR spikes above 89.1% → scenario D escalates to full exit. DOJ probe goes from investigation to charges → full exit regardless of earnings. Ceasefire extension formally confirmed before April 21 → scenarios A/B become more probable, raising the hold bias.

XOMExxonMobil stub — Exit Trigger ApproachingHEDGEEXIT TRIGGER APPROACHING

Entry ~$135 blended · Stop: $128 · Thesis: WEAKENING — war premium near fully deflatedWeight: ~6%

XOM's entire thesis was geopolitical re-insurance. With WTI at $88 and Trump saying the war is "very close to over," the war premium that justified holding XOM has been substantially deflated. The position is still in profit (~$126 est. P&L on the stub), but the direction of that gain is now threatened by further oil decline. The exit trigger is precise: official announcement of next-round Iran talks. Not a Trump verbal statement. Not a Bloomberg report. An official US or Iranian government confirmation of scheduled talks. This precision matters — several false starts over the past week would have triggered a premature exit.

⚠ Exit Trigger — Exact Conditions

Official US government (White House press office or State Department) OR official Iranian foreign ministry confirmation that next-round talks are scheduled → exit XOM at next session open. Trump informal statements do not count. Bloomberg/AP "reports" do not count. A joint statement from both sides would count.

JPM / GSFinancial Normalisation — Q1 Beats ConfirmedSTARTER→COREHOLD — THESIS INTACT

Entry Apr 8 · Weight: ~5%Stop: Entry –7% · Thesis: UNCHANGED · Next gate: Q2 earnings

Both Q1 beats are confirmed. The normalisation thesis is intact. Fixed income and investment banking have directly benefited from oil and rate volatility. Next scale-up requires Q2 confirmation. Hold at 5% with entry –7% stop. No action needed today.

⚠ What Would Invalidate

Q2 EPS miss on NII. Credit loss provisions spike significantly (consumer deterioration). Recession probability exceeds 50%.

GLDGold — Hedge · De-Escalation Regime Currently ActiveHEDGEHOLD — DE-ESCALATION REGIME

Entry Apr 13 · Current ~$4,800 · Modest drawdown since entryWeight: ~3.5%Regime label: DE-ESCALATION (hedge attenuated) · Add trigger: not met

Regime label (new): GLD is currently in a DE-ESCALATION regime. In this regime, peace deal progress deflates both inflation fears (via oil decline) and safe-haven demand simultaneously, making GLD a drag rather than a hedge. This is expected and acceptable at 3.5% weight. The position's hedge function would reactivate in a BEAR regime (re-escalation, oil spike above $108). The current de-escalation drawdown is ~$60 estimated — within tolerance. Hold. Add trigger requires bear probability above 30% — currently 20%.

⚠ When Hedge Reactivates

Bear probability rises above 30% (re-escalation scenario gains probability). Iran executes maritime closure threat (regime flips back to escalation). Fed surprises hawkish at FOMC April 28–29 (inflation hedge reactivates). Any of these would make GLD a positive contributor again.

BTC / ETHTactical Crypto · Risk-On ProxyTACTICALHOLD — TRAIL ACTIVE

BTC ~$74K · ETH ~$2,325BTC stop: $70K trailing · ETH stop: $2,050 · Both above stops

BTC and ETH continue to track risk sentiment, rising with equities as diplomatic news improves. BTC is ~$4,000 above the trailing stop with no sign of deterioration. Tax Day selling pressure from April 15 was absorbed cleanly. ETH outperformance continues with the ETH/BTC ratio at 3-month highs. Both positions are in "hold and let the stops govern" mode. The FOMC on April 28–29 is the next major risk-off catalyst to monitor for crypto.

Watchlist — Updated Priorities After Oil Falls to $88 and S&P ATH

V / MA Visa / Mastercard Deal Materialises HIGH

🔴 IMMINENT — 1 session away

WTI at $88 is at the trigger threshold. One more close below $88 → initiate 3% V or MA starter as pure "deal materialises" play. Payment volumes recover as energy prices fall and consumer confidence rebounds. Both names have pricing power and near-zero capital intensity.

Entry Trigger

WTI closes below $88 for 2 consecutive sessions → initiate 3% starter at open. Currently: 1/2 sessions confirmed.

COST Costco Wholesale Defensive Consumer HIGH

🟡 APPROACHING — May earnings

War-era trade-down thesis intact. Even in a bull scenario (deal materialises), Costco benefits from renewed consumer confidence. The May earnings (Q3) are the cleaner entry gate vs entering on pure macro narrative.

Entry Trigger

Pulls back to $870–900 OR Q3 May earnings beat $13.50+ EPS → 4% starter.

EQIX Equinix · Data Centre REIT AI Infrastructure MED

🟡 APPROACHING — AVGO deal confirms AI infra capex

AVGO's Meta and Anthropic deals this week confirm AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating. EQIX is the physical layer — data centre capacity is the bottleneck. Conviction upgraded from last week. Still not chasing current levels.

Entry Trigger

Pulls back to $680–720 (below 200-day MA) → 3% starter. Or: portfolio tech concentration drops below 38% post NFLX/XOM changes → add as AI infra diversifier.

LIN Linde · Industrial Gases Industrial Diversifier MED

⚪ DORMANT — no near-term catalyst

Low correlation to tech and war macro. Long-term take-or-pay contracts. Would reduce tech concentration. No pressing entry signal — dormant until portfolio composition warrants diversification away from tech cluster.

Entry Trigger

Pulls back to $385–400 OR tech cluster weight exceeds 50% → 3% starter as diversifier.

BAC Bank of America Financial Diversifier MED

🟡 APPROACHING — Q1 results pending

Most rate-sensitive major bank. Curve steepening benefits NII directly. Q1 report pending — if credit provisions underrun like JPM, conviction upgrades to HIGH and entry trigger activates. Moving closer following JPM's clean print.

Entry Trigger

BAC Q1 beat AND provisions below estimate → 2% starter. Q1 report expected imminently.

GLD+ Gold — Additional Add Hedge Reload MED

⚪ DORMANT — bear prob falling

Bear probability now 20%, falling. In current de-escalation regime, additional GLD is a drag not a hedge. This trigger moves further away as the bull case strengthens. Only reactivates if scenario flips back to escalation.

Trigger (Active)

Bear prob >30% AND ceasefire expires Apr 21 without extension → add $300. Currently: NOT MET and moving away.

Correlation Check — Day 9 · Vol Constraint Is Binding

Estimated Pairwise Correlations (30-day)

NFLX / AVGO+0.72

NFLX / BTC+0.58

AVGO / BTC+0.61

NFLX / UNH+0.18

NFLX / XOM–0.31

BTC / GLD+0.12

All EST · regime may shift post-deal

Drawdown Stress Test — Bear Scenario (Dollar Terms)

NFLX –20%–$387

AVGO –20%–$387

BTC –20%–$121

ETH –20%–$170

UNH –15%–$237

JPM/GS –15%–$91

Full bear total–$1,393

–11.5% from ~$12,100 masterGLD +20% offsets ~$85

EST Vol constraint is binding (not decorative): Current estimated portfolio vol is 24–28% annualised, above the 28% threshold that triggers a mandatory sizing review. However, the primary driver is the NFLX binary event tonight — this is temporary elevated vol that will normalise post-print. If NFLX kill switch fires, vol drops to ~18–22% immediately as position exits. No sizing review required pre-print. If NFLX holds and AVGO remains at 16% post-May 1 without a new catalyst, the AVGO trim to 14% must execute per overweight expiry rules.

Portfolio Value (Master)

~$12,100

10-Day Return (est.)

+21.0%

Cash Reserve

~$1,050

Non-Correlated

~28%

Bear Prob

20%

All values referenced from master portfolio estimate of ~$12,100. EST All sections use this figure. NFLX post-earnings result will update the master value in tomorrow's April 17 briefing.

All Positions — Day 9 Master Table · Post-Re-Entry State

Ticker	Intent	Status / Freshness	Weight	Est. P&L	Stop	Expected Return	Next Gate
NFLX	CORE	🔴 Kill switch LIVE — AH tonight	~16%	+$186 est.	$85	Contingent on AH print	Apr 16 AH
AVGO	CORE	STRENGTHENED — Meta deal Apr 15	~16%	+$456 est.	$270	Bull +61–74% · Base +44–61%	Jun 4 Q2
UNH	CORE	UNCHANGED · Medicare boost confirmed	~13%	+$236 est.	$245	Bull +22–33% · Base +11–22%	Apr 21 Q1
XOM stub	HEDGE	WEAKENING — exit trigger approaching	~6%	+$91 est.	$128	Exit on official talk announcement	Official talks
JPM / GS	STARTER→CORE	UNCHANGED — Q1 beats confirmed	~5%	+$19 est.	Entry –7%	Base +10–30%	Q2 earnings
GLD	HEDGE	UNCHANGED — de-escalation regime	~3.5%	–$60 est.	–8% entry	Hedge reactivates if bear >30%	Apr 21 scenario
BTC (50%)	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED — above $70K stop	~5%	+$34 est.	$70K trail	Stop governs exit	Active
ETH	TACTICAL	UNCHANGED — outperforming BTC	~7%	+$19 est.	$2,050	Stop governs exit	Active
Cash Reserve		Post re-entry · Fire extinguisher maintained	~9%	~$1,050 · Available for V/MA if trigger fires or post-NFLX reallocation

Harvest Rule (50/30/20) — Cash Deployment Status

50%

Cash Reserve

~$1,050 remaining post re-entry. Fire extinguisher function intact. Available for V/MA trigger or post-NFLX reallocation if kill switch fires.

30%

Diversification

$200 executed to JPM/GS (Apr 14). This leg is complete for the April 13 trim cycle.

20%

Re-Entry

$350 deployed today ($175 NFLX + $175 AVGO). Rule executed as designed — re-entry reserve fully deployed.

Trade Log — All Transactions · Complete Proceeds Accounting

Date	Ticker	Action	Trigger / Proceeds	Price	Status
Apr 6	NFLX	BUY CORE	Thesis entry · GS $120 PT	$97.50	Open · kill switch live tonight
Apr 6	AVGO	BUY CORE	AI capex · $73B backlog	$298.00	Open · thesis strengthening
Apr 6	UNH	BUY CORE	Defensive · Optum AI	$279.00	Open · Apr 21 binary approaching
Apr 6	XOM	BUY HEDGE	Escalation re-insurance	~$130	Open stub · exit trigger approaching
Apr 6	SOL	SHORT TACTICAL	High-beta hedge	$86.00	CLOSED +$54 ✓
Apr 7	XOM	TRIM HEDGE	Ceasefire · premium reduced	~$155	Partial harvest ✓
Apr 7	BTC	BUY TACTICAL	Ceasefire risk-on	$69,500	Open (50%)
Apr 7	BTC	SELL 50% HARVEST	$72,700 locked	$72,700	Harvest ✓
Apr 7	ETH	BUY TACTICAL	BTC catch-up	$2,200	Open
Apr 8	JPM/GS	BUY STARTER	Normalisation thesis	Apr 8 open	Open 3%→5%
Apr 13	NFLX	TRIM 20% — OIL TRIGGER	WTI >$105 · 50/30/20 applied	~$105	✓
Apr 13	AVGO	TRIM 20% — OIL TRIGGER	WTI >$105 · 50/30/20 applied	~$340	✓
Apr 13	GLD	BUY HEDGE	Bear prob >25% · $400	Market open	Open · de-escalation drag
Apr 14	JPM/GS	SCALE 3%→5% — JPM BEAT	EPS $5.94 · provisions $500M below	Apr 14	✓
Apr 16	NFLX	RE-ENTRY — OIL TRIGGER	WTI <$95 confirmed · $175 re-entry reserve	~$106	Executed ✓
Apr 16	AVGO	RE-ENTRY — OIL TRIGGER	WTI <$95 confirmed · $175 re-entry reserve	~$390	Executed ✓
Pending		NFLX kill switch: AH tonight → apply tomorrow open if triggered · XOM exit: official talks announcement · V/MA: WTI 2nd session below $88 · UNH: Apr 21 dual-binary per decision tree

April 16, 2026 — NFLX Earnings Night