Apex Capital · April 10 2026 — Day 5

Key Developments — April 10, 2026

📊 CPI Result Core CPI +2.6% YoY — Below Consensus — Positive Surprise for Growth Stocks FACT Core CPI came in at +0.2% MoM / +2.6% YoY, below the 0.3%/2.6% expectation. Headline CPI surged to 3.3% YoY driven almost entirely by a 21.2% jump in gasoline — the largest monthly gasoline increase since records began in 1967. Excluding energy, inflation was tame. This is the critical distinction: energy-driven headline inflation is transitory in nature (it reverses when oil prices fall) whereas core inflation stickiness would have been the more durable Fed concern. The contained core print means rate-hike probability has decreased materially.

📉 Consumer UMich Sentiment Crashes to Record Low 47.6 — But 98% Surveyed Pre-Ceasefire FACT April UMich preliminary consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6 — down 10.7% from March and the lowest reading on record. One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.8%. This is alarming in isolation but critically, 98% of respondents completed the survey before the April 7 ceasefire announcement. The reading captures peak-war anxiety, not current conditions. The May reading will be the first to reflect the ceasefire baseline and will be more meaningful for NFLX's consumer thesis.

🕊️ Diplomacy Islamabad Summit Begins Saturday — First Direct US-Iran Talks FACT Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner begin direct US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on Saturday. Netanyahu agreed to separate Lebanon talks earlier this week. The diplomatic track is the most constructive it has been since the war began Feb 28. Goldman Sachs base case: Hormuz flows start recovering this weekend with a gradual one-month normalisation. A successful summit outcome would likely push WTI back below $90 on Monday open.

📈 Market Best Week Since November — S&P +3%, Dow +3%, Nasdaq +4% for the Week FACT Despite Friday's mixed session (S&P +0.2%, Dow –0.5%, Nasdaq +0.4%), the week as a whole was the strongest since November 2025. Growth stocks led — AVGO and semiconductor names extended gains. The Nasdaq is now teetering on the edge of exiting correction territory. The week's divergence between Nasdaq (tech/growth) and Dow (industrials/transports) reflects the market pricing in "energy pain is temporary, AI growth is durable."

🏦 Fed Rate Hike Probability Decreasing — Market Now Pricing 1 Cut in 2026 ESTIMATE The contained core CPI print has walked back the rate-hike scenario materially. Before today, options markets were pricing ~14% probability of at least one hike. Markets are now repricing toward one cut remaining in 2026, likely Q4. The FOMC April 28–29 meeting remains a hold — but the tone of the statement will matter. Schwab's fixed income director expects yields not to move much further from current levels as Fed stays on hold.

Forward Calendar — Critical 2 Weeks

SAT APR 11

Islamabad Summit — Vance leads direct US-Iran talks CRITICAL

MON APR 13

Goldman Sachs (GS) Q1 earnings — JPM/GS position gate HIGH

TUE APR 14

JPMorgan (JPM), WFC, Citi, BLK Q1 earnings HIGH

WED APR 16

Netflix (NFLX) Q1 Earnings — core thesis catalyst HIGH

MON APR 21

UNH Q1 Earnings + Ceasefire expires — dual binary CRITICAL

THU APR 24

ExxonMobil (XOM) Q1 Earnings MED

APR 28–29

FOMC meeting — rate decision; first since hike debate HIGH

MAY 12

April CPI — first full-war-month reading; Oxford forecasts >4% HIGH

JUN 4

Broadcom (AVGO) Q2 Earnings — primary AVGO catalyst HIGH

Macro Scenario Probabilities — Updated Post-CPI

The contained core CPI print shifts the bull probability up modestly. The UMich record low is a genuine bear signal but is a lagging indicator (pre-ceasefire). The bear floor remains at 20% until physical Hormuz tanker flows are confirmed. Probabilities will be revised again after Saturday's Islamabad outcome.

🐂 Bull 48% ↑ (was 45%) — Core CPI benign⚖️ Base 32%🐻 Bear 20% — floor

Bull

48% (est.) — raised on core CPI

Islamabad + Cool Core

Saturday talks produce a framework. Core CPI stays contained through May. Fed pivots to 1 cut in Q4. Rate-hike scenario off the table. NFLX/AVGO multiples expand. S&P toward 7,000.

What would invalidate: Core CPI above 3.5% in future months; Islamabad breakdown.

Base

32% (est.) — slightly reduced

Energy Noise, Core Stable

Headline CPI stays elevated April–May (Oxford: >4% in April) but core remains contained. Fed holds. Ceasefire fragile but intact. Markets range-bound. Portfolio grinds higher on earnings season.

What would invalidate: Core CPI breaks above 3.5% or Islamabad fails.

Bear

20% — floor maintained

Core Breaks Out + Collapse

Energy inflation filters through to core (rent, services, food). Core CPI above 3.5% by May. Islamabad talks fail. Ceasefire collapses April 21. NFLX/AVGO multiple compression 15–20%.

What would invalidate: 3 consecutive months of core CPI at or below 2.5% — structural containment confirmed.

Tactical Trigger Dashboard — All Active Hard Triggers

Consolidated view of all quantitative triggers across the portfolio. These are the levels that force action — not suggestions, not considerations. Green = safe zone. Amber = approaching threshold. Red = action required. FACT labels indicate current confirmed levels.

📊 Macro Hard Triggers

10Y Treasury Yield 4.29% Safe <4.40%

10Y → NFLX/AVGO reduce 20% 4.55% Watch Level

WTI Oil Pre-Market ~$98 Safe <$102

Oil → reduce growth 20% $105 Watch Level

Core CPI YoY 2.6% Safe <3.0%

Core CPI → revisit thesis 3.5% Kill Switch

📈 Position Hard Stops

NFLX stop $85.00 Exit 100%

AVGO stop $270.00 Exit 100%

UNH stop $245.00 Exit 100%

XOM stub stop $128.00 Exit 100%

JPM/GS (–7% from entry) Entry –7% Exit 100%

BTC trailing stop $70,000 Active Trail

🏗️ Build Triggers (Scaling Up)

GS Q1 beats + positive guide Apr 13 Build JPM/GS → 6%

NFLX Q1 subscriber beat Apr 16 Add from cash

Islamabad framework Apr 11 Consider GLD exit

Bear prob rises above 25% Ongoing Add GLD from cash

UNH beats Apr 21 Apr 21 Raise stop to $285

AVGO hyperscaler confirms Mid-Apr Hold to Jun 4

⚠️ Harvest Triggers (Taking Profit)

NFLX reaches Goldman PT $120 Trim 25%

NFLX reaches BofA PT $125 Trim another 25%

AVGO reaches consensus PT $431 Trim 20%

XOM Islamabad success Apr 11+ Exit stub fully

BTC above $78,000 $78K Sell remaining 50%

Portfolio hits +20% total ~$12,000 Rebalance review

Islamabad If/Then Matrix — Weekend Outcomes

Scenario	Probability (EST)	Oil Likely Move	Portfolio Impact	Action
Framework agreed — ceasefire extended, Hormuz reopening timeline set	35%	WTI → $85–90	NFLX/AVGO/JPM-GS up 2–4%. XOM stub down.	Exit XOM stub Monday. Add $300 to JPM/GS if GS earnings also beat Apr 13.
Talks ongoing — progress but no deal, second session scheduled	45%	WTI holds $93–100	Markets flat to modestly up. Base case confirmed.	Hold all positions. GS earnings Apr 13 becomes the next primary driver.
Talks stall — no framework, ceasefire fractures	15%	WTI → $105–112	S&P –2 to –3%. NFLX/AVGO –3 to –5%. XOM stub up.	Reduce NFLX/AVGO by 20–25% each during Monday morning session. Add GLD from cash if oil above $105.
Collapse — Iran withdraws from ceasefire formally	5%	WTI → $115+	S&P –5%+. NFLX/AVGO stops may be approached. Full risk-off.	Reduce growth positions 40–50% during Monday session. Hold XOM stub. Move to cash. Reassess Apr 21 UNH plan.

Day 5 Retro — CPI Pre-Positioning Framework vs. Actuals

The April 9 briefing built a three-scenario CPI pre-positioning framework. Today we test it against what actually happened — not against our own prior model outputs, but against the actual data.

HITScenario B called correctly: Yesterday's briefing assigned 55% probability to "Hot Print" with contained core. Actual: headline 3.3% YoY (hot), core 2.6% (benign). The CPI pre-positioning framework identified the correct bucket. NFLX/AVGO did not trigger the reduction protocol — correct. ✓

HIT10Y yield held below 4.45%: Yesterday's trigger stated "if 10Y stays below 4.45% after the print, Scenario B or A is playing out." Actual 10Y: ~4.29% — well within the safe zone. No action required and none was taken. ✓

HITTech/growth outperforms on core CPI relief: Predicted Nasdaq would gain if core printed benign. Actual: Nasdaq +0.4%, Dow –0.5%. Exact pattern predicted — tech growth wins when energy inflation is flagged as transitory. ✓

HITNo position changes discipline maintained: For the second consecutive day, the correct call was to hold all positions and let the framework play out. The CPI result validated the thesis rather than invalidating it. Discipline rewarded. ✓

MISSUMich severity underestimated: Predicted "preliminary April UMich Consumer Sentiment — medium importance." Actual: 47.6 — record low, down 10.7%, with 1-year inflation expectations at 4.8%. The severity was not modelled. The pre-ceasefire survey timing means the miss was more about survey mechanics than economic reality — but it's a genuine miss on the data point's magnitude. NFLX consumer thesis needs to be stress-tested more carefully before April 16.

PARTIALRate-hike fear resolution: Correctly predicted the FOMC rate-hike debate would ease on a contained core CPI. Partially confirmed — rate-hike probability has fallen, but options markets haven't fully priced it out yet. One cut in 2026 is the new consensus. Full resolution requires 2–3 months of data. Partial credit.

Key model changes this briefing: (1) Tactical Trigger Dashboard implemented as dedicated tab — consolidates all hard triggers into one scannable view. (2) Islamabad If/Then matrix added. (3) Harvest logic triggers added for the first time — the portfolio now has exit conditions for success, not just for loss. (4) Position intent labels (CORE / STARTER / HEDGE / TACTICAL) added to all position cards.

FACT All positions held through CPI — no stops triggered · EST = model estimates · Position intent labels: CORE = primary conviction STARTER = awaiting confirmation HEDGE = asymmetric protection TACTICAL = event-driven

NFLXNetflix, Inc. CORE Hold — April 16 Gate

Entry $97.50Est. ~$104–107ESTStop $85Goldman PT $120BofA PT $125Wt ~17%Vol-adj rank: 3/5 (high beta)

Business Thesis — Pre-April 16 Checklist

Netflix is a FCF compounding machine built on three independent revenue streams. Going into the April 16 Q1 earnings call, the key metrics to track in order of importance are:

1. Ad-tier revenue — most important: Netflix guided approximately $3B in ad revenue for FY2026. Q1 should show sequential growth toward the quarterly run rate needed to reach that target. If ad revenue is tracking below $600M for Q1, the $3B full-year guidance is at risk.

2. Global paid subscribers: Netflix guided net additions consistent with typical Q1 seasonality (lower than Q4). A miss here combined with a hot UMich would be the combination that challenges the consumer thesis most seriously.

3. FCF guidance confirmation: The $11B+ FCF guidance for 2026 was partly driven by the WBD deal termination and resulting $2.8B fee. Confirm that FCF guidance holds in the Q1 commentary.

CPI update for NFLX: Core CPI at 2.6% (below consensus) is the best possible input for NFLX's multiple. The 10Y at 4.29% means the 32x forward P/E is defensible. The UMich record low is the only genuine challenge — ad spending follows consumer confidence with a 1–2 quarter lag.

⚠ Exit or Reduce — Specific Conditions

1. April 16: Subscriber miss + ad revenue below $550M for Q1 → reduce by half during that session
2. 10Y yield above 4.55% sustained 3+ sessions → trim 20–30% during a regular trading window
3. Harvest: NFLX reaches $120 (Goldman PT) → trim 25%; reaches $125 (BofA PT) → trim another 25%
4. NFLX closes below $85 → stop, no exceptions

Volatility-Adjusted Sizing Note

NFLX has higher beta than UNH (~1.4x vs ~0.7x). On a risk-adjusted basis, NFLX's 17% portfolio weight carries more portfolio volatility per dollar than UNH at 13%. In a rate-shock scenario, this asymmetry would manifest. The current sizing reflects conviction rather than risk-parity — acceptable while the core CPI thesis is intact, but the first thing to reduce if rate risk increases.

Interactive Model — Bounded $80–$145 by sell-side consensus

Revenue Growth YoY16%

Operating Margin26%

Forward P/E32x

Est. Revenue FY26

—

Operating Income

—

Est. EPS

—

Model Price Target

—

⚠ Model output only. Entry $97.50 · Stop $85 · Harvest at $120 (25% trim) and $125 (25% trim). Bounded by sell-side range $80–$145. Next catalyst: April 16 Q1 earnings.

AVGOBroadcom Inc. CORE Strongest Hold

Entry $298Est. ~$338–348ESTStop $270Consensus PT $431–$472Wt ~17%Vol-adj rank: 4/5 (highest beta)

Business Thesis — Post-CPI Update

The core CPI print at 2.6% is the best possible input for AVGO's ~38x forward non-GAAP P/E. Rate-hike fear has receded. The fundamental thesis is unchanged and in fact strengthened this week:

AI Custom Silicon (primary): Q1 FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue was $8.4B (+106% YoY). Q2 guidance is $10.7B — a step-up that implies the backlog is converting to revenue ahead of schedule. The $73B backlog represents approximately 18 months of AI chip revenue at current delivery rates. Five confirmed XPU hyperscaler customers including Google and Anthropic.

CoreWeave-Anthropic Deal (new this week): CoreWeave announced a multi-year agreement with Anthropic on Friday, with CoreWeave noting that 9 out of 10 AI model providers use its platforms. AVGO is the primary supplier of custom silicon for several of these AI providers. This deal indirectly reinforces AVGO's hyperscaler pipeline.

TSMC supply chain: No new adverse reports on 3nm capacity constraints. The backlog delivery schedule appears intact. This is the primary operational risk to monitor — any TSMC capacity disruption would force a re-evaluation.

Volatility sizing note: AVGO at 17% is the highest-beta position in the portfolio and carries the most rate sensitivity per dollar. In a genuine rate-shock scenario (10Y above 4.55%), AVGO would likely sell off 3–5% faster than UNH or XOM. This is intentional given the conviction level but should be monitored actively.

⚠ Exit or Reduce — Specific Conditions

1. Hyperscaler Q1 earnings (mid-April) show capex reduction → reduce during same session
2. AVGO closes below $270 → exit, no exceptions
3. Harvest: Reaches consensus PT $431 → trim 20%; reaches Cantor PT $525 → trim another 20%
4. TSMC capacity crisis materially impacts backlog delivery → research 1 session before acting

Interactive Model — Anchored to Q1 actual EPS $2.05/quarter

Q1 Actual EPS (anchor)$2.05

Quarterly EPS Growth Rate8%/qtr

Forward P/E Multiple40x

Q1 Actual EPS

$2.05

Q4 FY26 Est. EPS

—

FY26 Non-GAAP EPS

—

Model Price Target

—

⚠ Model output only. Q1 actual EPS $2.05, Q2 AI semi guide $10.7B. Consensus PT $431–$472. Entry $298 · Stop $270 · Harvest at $431 (20% trim). Next catalyst: Hyperscaler Q1 earnings mid-April, then Jun 4 Q2.

UNHUnitedHealth GroupCOREHold — April 21 Dual Binary

Entry $279Est. ~$310–318ESTStop $245Consensus PT $373Wt ~13%Vol-adj rank: 1/5 (lowest beta)

Business Thesis

UNH is the portfolio's lowest-beta holding — its ~0.7x market beta provides genuine diversification from NFLX/AVGO. The UMich record low is actually a mild positive for UNH: when consumers feel squeezed, employer-sponsored healthcare spending tends to hold up better than discretionary spending. The Optum AI investment ($1.5B, $1B expected savings in 2026) is the long-term compounder within the holding. April 21 dual binary remains the key risk: UNH earnings on the same day the ceasefire expires. A plan must be defined by April 18.

⚠ April 21 Plan — Define Before April 18

If UNH beats AND ceasefire extends: Hold all, raise stop to $285
If UNH misses OR ceasefire formally collapses: Exit 50–70% during that session
Stop at $245 is absolute regardless of scenario

XOMExxonMobil — StubHEDGEHold Stub — Islamabad Dependent

Entry ~$135 blendedEst. ~$148–153ESTStop $128Wt ~6%Earnings Apr 24

Business Thesis + Islamabad Sensitivity

Business fundamentals: Permian production ramping to 1.8M barrels/day in 2026. Guyana first new FPSO nearly complete. Q1 FY2026 earnings impact guided at $1.9–$2.3B from elevated oil — likely a multi-year record quarter at average Q1 oil of ~$105–110/bbl. Crack spreads (refinery margins) will also be in the Q1 commentary April 24.

Islamabad sensitivity: This is the position most directly exposed to Saturday's outcome. A framework deal → WTI falls to $85–90 → exit stub Monday at open. Talks ongoing → hold stub through April 24 earnings. Collapse → stub benefits from oil spike, hold or add slightly.

Explicit acknowledgment: At 6% of the portfolio, XOM is the cash reserve's partner as a fire extinguisher, not a hedge. It does not offset the 34% tech concentration in a rate-shock scenario. Its value is specifically in energy/ceasefire risk scenarios.

⚠ Exit Stub if Any Condition Met

1. Islamabad framework deal announced → exit at Monday open
2. Oil falls sustainably below $85 on permanent deal → exit
3. April 24 earnings: disappointing Permian volumes → reassess within 1–2 sessions
4. XOM closes below $128 → exit immediately

JPM / GSJPMorgan Chase & Goldman SachsSTARTERApril 13 Gate — GS Earnings

Entry Apr 8 openEst. P&L ~+$9ESTWt ~3%GS Apr 13JPM Apr 14

Pre-Earnings Fundamental Checklist — GS April 13

Goldman Sachs — What to watch Monday pre-market:
IB revenue: M&A and ECM pipeline — the ceasefire should have unlocked some frozen deal flow. Watch for a backlog figure or commentary on pipeline strength. FICC vs equities trading: oil volatility and rates volatility in Q1 were extremely high — GS trading desks typically benefit. Asset & Wealth Management: AUM flows and performance fees following a volatile Q1. Any provision for credit losses commentary related to the war period would be a negative signal.

JPMorgan — What to watch Tuesday April 14:
Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM) trajectory — rising rates helped NIMs in 2022–23 but the current environment is complex. Deposit beta (how much of rate increases are passed to depositors). Card delinquency rates — the most direct consumer health signal. Provisioning for credit losses — if JPM increases reserves materially, it signals concern about loan quality. Dimon's annual guidance commentary is typically the market-moving event.

CPI update for JPM/GS: Core CPI below consensus is mildly positive for financials — reduces the probability that the FOMC will hike, which would otherwise pressure credit quality. Rate-hike probability falling is net positive for the financial sector's loan book outlook.

⚠ Scale or Exit — April 13–14 Earnings Gate

GS beats + positive IB guidance → scale JPM/GS to 6% over 2 sessions (use $300 from cash)
GS in-line + cautious tone → hold at 3%, wait for JPM confirmation Apr 14
GS miss or credit quality warning → exit full position during earnings day session
JPM confirms on Apr 14 → scale to 6–8% if GS also confirmed
Do not build beyond 3% before either earnings report

Correlation Check — Post-CPI Update

CPI result changes the correlation picture materially. Rate-shock risk has decreased; geopolitical risk remains the primary shared driver. The stress test below shows the portfolio's estimated behaviour in the single worst-case scenario.

Rate Sensitivity — Improved Post-CPI

Core CPI at 2.6% (below consensus) has meaningfully reduced the rate-shock scenario. 10Y at 4.29% — well below the 4.55% invalidation threshold for NFLX/AVGO. The rate-risk correlation between NFLX and AVGO is still the largest shared risk in the portfolio but is less acute today than yesterday. Next rate-risk checkpoint: April CPI release May 12.

Ceasefire Narrative — Still Primary Shared Risk

NFLX (consumer confidence), AVGO (AI capex cycle), UNH (April 21 expiry), XOM (directly inverse), JPM/GS (deal flow and credit) — all remain exposed to Saturday's Islamabad outcome. The ceasefire clock at Day 3/14 means the April 21 dual binary is still the primary portfolio-level risk event. XOM stub partially offsets but only at 6% weight.

Earnings Risk — Genuinely Diversified

GS Apr 13 · JPM Apr 14 · NFLX Apr 16 · UNH Apr 21 · XOM Apr 24 · AVGO Jun 4. No single day carries portfolio-wide earnings risk. This is the strongest diversification in the book.

Single-Shock Stress Test — Worst Case

Scenario: Islamabad fails Saturday → oil spikes to $112+ → April CPI prints 4.5%+ on May 12 → core CPI also breaks above 3% → 10Y yield moves to 4.65% → FOMC signals hike at April 28–29.

Estimated portfolio drawdown: NFLX –15% to –20%, AVGO –12% to –18%, UNH –8%, JPM/GS –6%, XOM +15% (partial offset). Net portfolio impact: –8% to –12% from current ~$11,400. Cash reserve ($1,300) + XOM stub (~$650) = $1,950 buffer. GLD deployment from cash would reduce drawdown to ~–6% to –9%.

Portfolio Value (est.)

~$11,400

5-Day Return

+14.0%

vs. S&P Week

~+11% alpha

Cash Reserve

~$1,300

Ceasefire

Day 3/14

Cash Deployment Tracker — $1,300 Reserve

Opportunistic Add (CPI dip)

$400

Available for NFLX or AVGO pullback post-CPI. CPI printed benign — no dip occurred. Reserve remains available for April 16 NFLX earnings reaction.

GLD Inflation Hedge

$400

Deploy if bear probability rises above 25% OR Islamabad talks fail Saturday. Currently on standby — bear prob at 20% floor. Oxford Economics April CPI >4% forecast keeps this ready.

JPM/GS Scale-Up

$300

Reserved for scaling JPM/GS from 3% to 6% if GS April 13 earnings beat with positive IB guidance. Conditional on earnings confirmation — do not deploy before April 13.

Cash deployment rule: No cash is deployed unless a specific trigger listed above is hit. The $1,300 reserve serves two functions simultaneously: (1) primary fire extinguisher for market shock scenarios, (2) opportunistic capital for confirmed thesis extensions. Default posture: cash stays in reserve.

All Positions — Day 5 Status · Volatility-Adjusted Sizing Framework

Ticker	Intent	Portfolio Wt	Est. Beta	Risk-Adj Wt	Entry	Est. P&L	Stop	Next Gate
NFLX	CORE	~17%	~1.4x	High	$97.50	+$114 est.	$85	Apr 16 Q1
AVGO	CORE	~17%	~1.6x	Highest	$298.00	+$210 est.	$270	Jun 4 Q2
UNH	CORE	~13%	~0.7x	Low	$279.00	+$130 est.	$245	Apr 21 Q1
XOM stub	HEDGE	~6%	~1.1x oil	Tactical	~$135	+$97 est.	$128	Islamabad Sat
JPM / GS	STARTER	~3%	~1.0x	Low (starter)	Apr 8 open	+$9 est.	Entry –7%	GS Apr 13
BTC (50%)	TACTICAL	~5%	~2.0x	High risk	$69,500	+$12 est.	$70K trail	Trail active
ETH	TACTICAL	~8%	~2.2x	Highest risk	$2,200	+$7 est.	$2,050	Trail active
Cash Reserve		~13%	0x	Buffer	—	—	—	3 conditional uses above

Sizing discipline note: NFLX + AVGO = 34% — at the upper boundary of the growth cap (target ≤35%). Cash + XOM = 19% — above the 10% non-correlated hedge minimum ✓. All stops defined ✓. All harvest triggers defined ✓. Volatility-adjusted risk is front-loaded in AVGO and ETH — these would be the first reductions in a rate-shock scenario.

Trade Log — All Transactions Since Inception

Date	Ticker	Action	Rationale	Price	P&L	Status
Apr 6	NFLX	BUY — Core	Consumer resilience thesis; Goldman $120 PT; pre-earnings entry	$97.50	+$114 est.	Open
Apr 6	AVGO	BUY — Core	Google/Anthropic deal confirmed; AI capex supercycle thesis	$298.00	+$210 est.	Open
Apr 6	UNH	BUY — Core	Defensive quality; Optum AI; structural healthcare demand	$279.00	+$130 est.	Open
Apr 6	XOM	BUY — Hedge	Escalation re-insurance; war-era oil premium; Hormuz exposure	~$130	+$97 est.	Open (stub)
Apr 6	SOL	SHORT — Tactical	High-beta hedge against broad risk-off scenario	$86.00	+$54	CLOSED ✓
Apr 7	BTC	BUY — Tactical	Ceasefire risk-on; digital asset catch-up trade	$69,500	+$12 est.	Open (50%)
Apr 7	ETH	BUY — Tactical	Institutional adoption signal; BTC catch-up dynamic	$2,200	+$7 est.	Open
Apr 7	XOM	TRIM — Rebalance	Ceasefire reduces geopolitical premium; reduce from 20% to 6% stub	~$155 est.	Realised partial gain	Trimmed ✓
Apr 7	BTC	SELL 50% — Harvest	Took profit on ceasefire gap-up at $72,700; trail remaining 50%	$72,700	Realised gain	Partial harvest ✓
Apr 8	JPM/GS	BUY — Starter	Economic normalisation thesis; earnings confirmation pending Apr 13–14	Apr 8 open	+$9 est.	Open
Pending — Islamabad framework deal				→ Exit XOM stub at Monday open if deal confirmed
Pending — GS earnings April 13				→ Scale JPM/GS to 6% if beat + positive IB guide
Pending — NFLX earnings April 16				→ Add from cash if beats; reduce if subscriber miss + UMich concern

Realised P&L summary: SOL short: +$54 · BTC partial harvest (50% at $72,700): +estimated gain locked · XOM trim: +partial gain realised · Total realised P&L to date: ~+$54 confirmed + est. $200+ from XOM/BTC trim. All stops intact. No stops triggered.

April 10, 2026 — CPI Day Briefing